The Chicago Bears are hopeful their first season with a rookie quarterback mimics that of the 2023 Houston Texans. The Bears rebuilt their entire offense around Caleb Williams and the No. 1 overall draft pick has stated he wants to play in the game. Of course he says that but it’s highly unlikely he does since we rarely see starters in the HOF game. Behind C.J. Stroud the Texans surprised a lot of people winning 10 games and the AFC South last year. With the foundation laid it’s time for them to build around a solid young core with depth players. The game is typically a snoozefest featuring more players who will be looking for jobs when the season starts rather than ones on an active roster, thus the game can get downright boring. But after waiting months football is back, and whether they admit it or not a lot of fans are going to wager on the game.
The 2024 NFL Hall of Fame Game between the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans will take place at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, August 1, and will be televised on ABC.
NFL Hall of Fame Game Betting Odds
Houston Texans +1.5
Chicago Bears -1.5
Total: 32
Odds Analysis
NFL preseason games are just hard to handicap which is why we see lines and totals similar across the board. With expanded rosters and teams working as far down the depth chart as they can most games are decided by future practice squad players making a play in the fourth quarter. With Williams saying he wants to play and Bears’ coach Matt Eberflus not saying anything to the contrary, at least not yet, oddsmakers use that information as a way to set lines. Chicago opened as a 2-point favorite, though we’ve seen lines jump the fence regularly, especially in the HOF game. In fact it happened last year when Cleveland opened as a slight favorite only to catch 2-points on the closing line. Underdogs are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three HOF contests with the score going OVER the total in each of the last two.
Chicago Bears
The team is being tight-lipped about Williams actually playing on Thursday night. Though he and the offense can use the reps in a live situation, the risk outweighs the reward. Quarterback rotation and playing time are good to know when wagering on preseason games. Chicago’s backups consist of Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien and Austin Reed. That makes playing Williams even more of a risk. We’ve seen teams over the last several years not play starters at all during the preseason and it hasn’t affected them. The Rams won the Super Bowl a few years ago with most of their starters not taking a preseason snap.
The Bears have depth at a number of positions, but it’s safe to say that QB isn’t one of them. Bagent started a few games last year with some flashy moments but had more picks than TD passes. Rypien started a few games and Reed is a promising rookie. The motivation for the coaching staff is to find a solid No. 2 option meaning we’re likely to see a lot of them.
Houston Texans
We can say the Texans are in a different place than they were at this time last year and that could change the thinking of DeMeco Ryans and his staff. The Texans won a total of 11 games over the previous three years making the 2023 preseason an important time for Ryans. He was also in his first year as head coach looking to make an impression. Stroud played in all three preseason games last year and now that he’s fully entrenched as the starter so we won’t see him in this matchup and may not see him at all during the exhibition games.
No biggie since there’s a veteran group looking to be his backup. Case Keenum, Davis Mills and Tim Boyle have all started at least 20 NFL games during their careers with some success along the way. Keenum took the Minnesota Vikings to the NFC Championship a few years ago. With QBs playing a huge role in the outcome of preseason games it looks like the Texans have the advantage in that area.
Bears vs. Texans Free Pick
Wagering on NFL preseason games is a crapshoot and bettors have as much info on teams as oddsmakers so there is coin to be had. It pays to wait since we often get tidbits from coaches just prior to the contests. This is a big season for the Bears investing heavily in Williams and building a threatening offense, but we won’t see any of that. Instead, the Texans have more experience at QB making all the difference when it comes to the preseason.
NFL Prediction: Houston Texans +2 / UNDER 32.5
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