You can wager on just about anything in the NFL and with scoring at an all-time high why not take a shot at which team will score the most points in 2021? It seems easy enough, right. Not so fast. A record five teams averaged more than 30 points in 2020 with the Green Bay Packers topping the list with 509 total points. A touchdown and 2-point conversion is all that separated the Pack from Buffalo on the scoring chart.
What makes this bet more interesting is that fact that we haven’t seen a back-to-back scoring champion in over a decade. The last team to accomplish the feat was the New Orleans Saints in the prime days of Drew Brees in 2008 and 2009. There’s been a different scoring leader in each of the last six seasons, but one common thread was outstanding quarterback play. The last three scoring champs produced the NFL MVP – or was it the other way around – and five times in those six seasons the signal-caller from the highest scoring team earned the league’s top honor.
What does that mean for this bet? Well, obviously you have to look at the QBs. Patrick Mahomes has been sensational since entering the league and the Chiefs have put up plenty of points. They led the NFL in 2018 and placed among the top-six the last two seasons. That’s why the Chiefs are the betting favorite in this futures market. But there are questions surrounding KC’s line after being manhandled by the Bucs in the Super Bowl.
And speaking of the Bucs, can Tom Brady continue to wield his magic at an advanced age. In his first season with Tampa, Brady had another remarkable season throwing 40 touchdown passes and the Bucs averaged 30.8 points. Three times during his career Brady directed the highest scoring team, the last in 2012 when the Patriots averaged 34.8 points.
Highest Scoring Team Odds
Kansas City Chiefs +650
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +950
Buffalo Bills +1000
Los Angeles Rams +1200
Green Bay Packers +1300
Cleveland Browns +1500
Baltimore Ravens +1700
Seattle Seahawks +1800
Dallas Cowboys +1800
Minnesota Vikings +2000
Tennessee Titans +2500
Arizona Cardinals +2500
Indianapolis Colts +2500
Los Angeles Chargers +2500
New Orleans Saints +2500
New England Patriots +3500
San Francisco 49ers +3000
Pittsburgh Steelers +3700
Denver Broncos +4000
Atlanta Falcons +4000
Miami Dolphins +4000
Washington Redskins +5000
Carolina Panthers +6000
New York Giants +7000
Chicago Bears +7000
Detroit Lions +10000
New York Jets +15000
From 1990 to 2000 there were five teams that averaged more than 30 points. Just in the last three seasons eight teams topped that mark, which is the gold standard for offense in the NFL. Scoring has become easier and just about every team is doing it. Some do it better than others, though. Two teams with shorter than 10/1 odds top the board led by the Chiefs. And it’s easy to see why they are the favorite.
With Mahomes running the show and a cadre of playmakers at his disposal points won’t be a problem. I’m hesitant to back them, though, since the numbers have dropped from their league-leading total in 2018. And working behind a rebuilt offensive line could be problem. One reason why Brady left New England was the potential of the Bucs to be a top offensive team. They have one of the best receiving corps in the NFL and Brady can still produce as he enters his mid-40s.
The game of chicken Aaron Rodgers played with the Packers is apparently over with the reigning MVP returning to the practice field looking to build off a season where he tossed a league-best 48 touchdowns passes with only five interceptions. That will be hard to do even for him.
If you trust Josh Allen’s continued development the Buffalo Bills are a worthy pick at +1000. With Allen throwing 37 scoring passes and rushing for an additional eight scores, the Bills finished a close second in the scoring race last season. And they did it without much of a ground game making the accomplishment even more spectacular.
Those teams possess a potent offense, but the one club to watch is the Dallas Cowboys. They finished 17th in scoring last season playing the last 11 games without Dak Prescott. Prior to his Week 5 injury, Prescott was leading the league in passing yards and the Boys averaged 32.6 points in his five starts. A few other things also standout. Ezekiel Elliott had the worst season of his career, but his numbers were better in games Prescott was behind center. And the offensive line returns three players who missed a significant amount of time last season. Give Mike McCarthy a full arsenal and the Cowboys should put up plenty of points.
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