You can always find someone to complain about the playoff format. Leave that to the Dallas Cowboys this year. One of four NFC teams to win at least 12 games, the Boys get a lower seed than the 8-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers since they didn’t win their division. The Boys and Bucs will tangle in the Sunshine state on Monday night to conclude Super Wild Card weekend. I guess you could say tampa Bay was the best of the worst winning the NFC South with a losing record. But with all the postseason success Tom Brady has produced during his career you can’t count the Bucs out of anything.
This NFL Wild Card playoff matchup will take place on Monday, January 16, 2023 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL and will be televised on ABC and ESPN.
NFL Wild Card Round Betting Odds
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date and Time: Monday, January 16, 2023, 8:15 PM ET (ABC, ESPN)
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Opening NFL Odds: Cowboys -2.5, O/U 45.5
Odds Analysis
It’s not a surprise to see the Cowboys as a 2.5-point road favorite. They did finish the season with four more wins than the Bucs and had an edge in nearly every statistical category. The surprise is that they aren’t favored by more points. Last week’s loss in Washington may have swayed oddsmakers and the betting public slightly. With a shot at the NFC East title and the No. 1 seed in the conference still in play, the Boys looked awful in a disappointing 26-6 loss as a 7.5-point favorite. They went just 2-2 SU and 1-2-1 over the final four games. The Bucs opened the campaign with a 19-3 outright victory over the Boys, their second straight season-opening triumph. Only this season the Bucs couldn’t maintain their hot start going 6-9 SU and 2-12-1 ATS over the last 15 games.
Players to Watch
We’re going plural in this section with quarterbacks Dak Prescott and Tom Brady as the guys to watch. For obvious reasons it’s going to be Brady. His postseason success is unparalleled and many blamed the Bucs poor record on his advanced age. But a deeper dive shows the GOAT actually had a splendid season. In the finale against Atlanta, Brady was 13 of 17 with a TD before exiting in the second quarter. He broke his own record for completions in a season connecting on 490 throws for 4,694 yards and 25 TDs. Brady was forced to throw with the Bucs lacking a ground game. Leonard Fournette led the way with 668 yards and the Bucs were dead last running the football averaging 76.9 yards.
The Cowboys survived when Prescott missed five games early in the season with an injury. The club thrived when he returned. The Cowboys went 8-2 in a 10-game stretch starting in Week 7 with Prescott behind center. Dak completed over 71 percent of his passes with 22 TD and nearly 2,600 yards with the team scoring at least 24 points in every game while averaging 35.1 points in that span. Prescott had his worst game of the season in the finale, though, going 14 of 37 for 128 yards. The offense was able to overcome Prescott’s recklessness with the football. He closed the season throwing at least one interception in seven consecutive games with a total of 11 in that span, and tied for the NFL lead with 15 picks.
Key Stat
Despite Dak’s recklessness with the football the Cowboys were able to post the second-best turnover margin in the NFL at plus-10. Under coordinator Dan Quinn and his aggressive, attacking style, the Boys led the league with 33 takeaways, one fewer than last season’s league-best total. While the interceptions were down, the group recovered 17 opponent fumbles. Dallas had at least one takeaway in each of the last six games with a total of 17 in that span while forcing multiple turnovers in five of those games. In their five losses the Cowboys were minus-3 in turnover differential while creating seven takeaways. I’ve said before that teams on the positive side of the turnover margin have more success than those at the other end.
Free ATS Pick
Now that it’s playoff time how do you ignore Brady and all his accomplishments? Well, I’m not sure you can. While Brady did have a nice season the team around him is flawed and not near the group that posted a win in Dallas in the opener. Tampa’s offense struggled all year and I fully expect the Cowboys to be better prepared and Prescott to have a better game than what happened in Week 18.
NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys -2.5 / UNDER 45.5
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