Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to throw the Most TD Passes in the NFL this season. Mahomes is listed at odds of +350, while Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady is the second choice at odds of +550. Three other quarterbacks are listed at odds of less than +1000. They are Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers at odds of +700, Seattle’s Russell Wilson at +900 and Buffalo’s Josh Allen at +950. Let’s look at all of the odds for who will throw the most passing touchdowns this season, the top contenders and a couple of longshots.
NFL Player with Most Passing Touchdowns in 2021-2022 Regular Season
Patrick Mahomes +350
Tom Brady +550
Aaron Rodgers +700
Russell Wilson +900
Josh Allen +950
Dak Prescott +1200
Justin Herbert +2000
Kirk Cousins +2000
Matt Ryan +2000
Matthew Stafford +2000
Ryan Tannehill +2500
Baker Mayfield +3000
Joe Burrow +3000
Jameis Winston +3000
Ben Roethlisberger +3500
Kyler Murray +3500
Derek Carr +3500
Lamar Jackson +4000
Trevor Lawrence +4500
Carson Wentz +5000
Ryan Fitzpatrick +5000
Tua Tagovailoa +5500
Sam Darnold +6000
Daniel Jones +6000
Zach Wilson +7000
Jalen Hurts +8000
Jared Goff +9000
Andy Dalton +10000
Cam Newton +10000
Drew Lock +10000
Jimmy Garoppolo +11000
Justin Fields +11500
Mac Jones +12000
Teddy Bridgewater +12500
Trey Lance +13500
Top Contenders
We have the big three of Mahomes, Brady and Rodgers and that is no surprise, as Mahomes leads the explosive offense in Kansas City, Brady leads the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs, while Rodgers is the reigning MVP and he had the most passing TDs last season with 48. Brady threw 40 TD passes last season, while Russell Wilson also threw 40 TD passes. Mahomes missed one game but still threw 38 TD passes.
You can make a case for a number of quarterbacks, but it is important to look at a few factors when making your decision on who to bet on. First, the quarterback must stay healthy.
Mahomes, Brady and Rodgers have usually avoided injuries, so we’ll consider this one even. Mahomes is the youngest of the three and plays in an offense that is extremely explosive. He gets the edge in terms of the offense he plays in, but it is not a huge edge, as Tampa has a pass-friendly offense, as does Green Bay.
One thing that some people forget is strength of schedule. If you have a quarterback who faces an easy schedule he should throw a lot of TD passes. There is no question that facing a defense like Baltimore is different than facing a defense like Detroit. Mahomes and the Chiefs have the 11th toughest schedule in the NFL this season. Brady and the Bucs face the 29th toughest schedule, while Rodgers and the Packers face the 4th toughest schedule in the NFL for 2021. I think you have to throw out Rodgers simply for that one fact alone. It also doesn’t help that Rodgers is in a feud with the front office.
The value in the top contenders is on Brady simply because the Bucs face one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season. It is also worth noting that Brady played threw an MCL injury last season and he is now at full strength.
Longshots
I think there are two longshots to look at. First, Justin Herbert threw for 31 TD passes as a rookie last season in 15 games and now he gets a new head coach in Brandon Staley who comes over from the Rams. I expect the Chargers to be more explosive on offense this season and we get +2000 on Herbert.
The other longshot worth a look is Matthew Stafford. He gets a huge upgrade in talent around him as he goes from the Lions to the Rams. The Rams are going to score a lot of points this season and Stafford should have a huge season. We get odds of +2000 on Stafford.
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