The top two teams in the AFC East meet on Saturday, as the Buffalo Bills visit the New England Patriots on NFL Network. Both teams are saying that this is a huge game since they are separated by just one game in the standings, but the reality is that the Patriots are going to win the division even if they lose on Saturday because they close out the season against the pathetic Miami Dolphins. The Bills can tie the Patriots in the standing by winning on Saturday but if the teams end up tied in the standings, the tiebreaker goes to New England. Let’s look at Saturday’s game and NFL picks.
This NFL regular season game between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots will be held at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 21, 2019. The game will be televised on NFL Network We'll have NFL odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2019 NFL season.
Odds Analysis
There has not been much movement on this game so far, as the Patriots opened up as a 6.5-point favorite and the current line has New England listed as a 6-point choice. There has been no movement on the total, as it currently sits at 38.5.
Buffalo is coming off a big win over Pittsburgh last week, while the Patriots routed the Bengals. The Bills have been an excellent road team this season going 6-1, while the Patriots are 5-1 at home.
Quotes of Note
The Patriots are still competing for the No. 2 spot in the AFC which would mean a first round bye, and they can clinch the AFC East with a win. “(It’s) humongous. It’s the biggest game of the year,” Patriots safety Duron Harmon said to the media, “It’s for the division. Most likely, it’s going to be for the No. 2 spot in the playoffs. A lot goes into this game, and we know that. But we’re excited for this opportunity. It’s going to be the biggest challenge we’ve had all year. … “It’s a playoff game. It’s a playoff game before the playoffs, and you’ve got to approach it that way.”
New England is expecting a very difficult game on Saturday, “It’s going to be a battle,” Patriots special teams captain Matthew Slater said to the media, “(The Bills are) a great football team. They’re going to give us everything we can handle, and we’re going to have to meet the challenge. But it’s going to be a battle.”
Matchup to Watch
If the Bills are going to move the ball they need to protect Josh Allen. Buffalo’s offensive line has allowed 34 sacks this season and now they go up against one of the top defenses in the league. Buffalo won’t have many opportunities against the Patriots, so they have to give Allen time to throw if they are to stay in this game.
NFL Trends
The Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings at New England. The Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the AFC East. The Patriots are 42-19-2 ATS in their last 63 home games.
Looking at the total, the Under is 8-2 in the Bills last 10 vs. the AFC. The Under is 20-7 in the Bills last 27 road games. The Under is 11-4 in the Patriots last 15 games in December. The Under is 8-3 in the Patriots last 11 home games. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
NFL Pick
Sometimes when it is obvious it works, as it did last Sunday night with the Bills-Steelers total going under. The Buffalo and New England offenses have been spotty while the defenses have been excellent, so I will take Saturday’s game under the total.
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