Coming off a 13-win season, NFC North title and with first-ballot Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers still throwing darts, the Green Bay Packers are a cinch to reach double-digit victories again, right? While they should be celebrating and building off the success enjoyed by first-year head coach Matt LaFleur, the Pack instead made some puzzling personnel decisions. After getting annihilated by the Niners in the NFC Championship and in need of a second receiving threat, Green Bay tabbed Jordan Love with its first pick in the draft and did little to upgrade the defense.
Packers Over 9 Wins +108
Packers Under 9 Wins -130
Winning 13 games and reaching the NFC Championship means the Pack had to be good. They were, just not dominant. A decent team and a lot of good fortune can do wonders. I didn’t see the Packers upgrade in the most important areas, and if the luck runs out they aren’t winning 13 games or even reaching double-figures. Oddsmakers are thinking along the same line with a win total at nine. That’s not a high total for a team that finished three games clear of Minnesota for the division title.
You can’t discount the Packers as long as Rodgers is behind center. We saw what happened a few years ago when he went down with a broken collarbone and the season collapsed, so as long as he’s in the game the Packers are a threat. Still, we saw the numbers slide for a second straight season. The Packers were average in 2019 with 23.5 points and 345.5 yards per game. They were actually better running the football with Aaron Jones going for 1,084 yards and 16 scores. Adding A.J. Dillon, who danced for 4,382 yards in three years at BC, gives them another layer.
We didn’t see the typical aerial attack last year. Rodgers threw for over 4,000 yards with 26 touchdowns with Davante Adams the only true threat. His 83 catches were 34 more than second-place Jones. Not taking a receiver in a rich draft, the Packers are relying on their youngsters to step up. Allen Lazard, Jake Kumerow and Marquez Valdes-Scantling all have the talent. Not a lot was done to fix a defense that conceded 285 yards and four TDs on the ground in the NFC Championship. One thing the Pack does well is hold onto the football. Rodgers threw only four picks and their 13 turnovers were the second-fewest.
2020 Green Bay Packers Schedule
Week 1: Packers at Vikings, Sunday, September 13, 1 p.m. ET
Week 2: Lions at Packers, Sunday, September 20, 1 p.m. ET
Week 3: Packers at Saints, Sunday, September 27, 8:20 p.m. ET
Week 4: Falcons at Packers, Monday, October 5, 8:15 p.m. ET
Week 5: BYE
Week 6: Packers at Buccaneers, Sunday, October 18, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 7: Packers at Texans, Sunday, October 25, 1 p.m. ET
Week 8: Vikings at Packers, Sunday, November 1, 1 p.m. ET
Week 9: Packers at 49ers, Thursday, November 5, 8:20 p.m. ET
Week 10: Jaguars at Packers, Sunday, November 15, 1 p.m. ET
Week 11: Packers at Colts, Sunday, November 22, 1 p.m. ET
Week 12: Bears at Packers, Sunday, November 29, 8:20 p.m. ET
Week 13: Eagles at Packers, Sunday, December 6, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 14: Packers at Lions, Sunday, December 13, 1 p.m. ET
Week 15: Panthers at Packers, Saturday/Sunday, December 19/20, TBA
Week 16: Titans at Packers, Sunday, December 27, 8:20 p.m. ET
Week 17: Packers at Bears, Sunday, January 3, 1 p.m. ET
2020 Green Bay Packers Schedule Analysis
With four of their first six games on the road the schedule gets cranking early. There are no patsies in those roadies either, with games at Minnesota, New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Houston. For the first time in their history the Packers will open a campaign in Minnesota and there’s a treat with Drew Brees and Tom Brady tossed in there. The home tilts are against Detroit and Atlanta. Escaping that opening stretch with a 3-3 ledger or better has the Packers set up for bigger things down the road.
Following their Week 9 NFC Championship rematch with the Niners, Green Bay plays five of its next seven on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Mad rival Chicago visits in Week 12 before the clubs put a bow on the season at Soldier Field in Week 17. The Packers didn’t get worse over the offseason, but they didn’t get a whole lot better. The division encounters should be much tougher and I don’t envision a perfect NFC North record like last season.
The Final Verdict
I was torn on the total. For one I don’t think Green Bay is going to be as successful as last season. Secondly, their total was so low I almost have to take the over. The offense will surprise a lot of people. Running the football is a big deal in LaFleur’s offense and Dillon will bolster that part of the game. One or more of the young receivers will make an impact in the passing game leading to at least 10 wins.
NFL Odds: Green Bay Packers Over 9 Wins
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