So far, the gambling public sees Super Bowl LIV as pretty much even with little in the way of line movement. The Kansas City Chiefs opened as a 1-point favorite with the NFL Odds over the San Francisco 49ers and were bet up a half a point from there. Kansas City is something of a sentimental choice in that they are playing in their first Super Bowl in 50 years. They will also bring the best player on the field to the game in the person of Patrick Mahomes, who was the 2018 NFL Most Valuable Player. The game marks a stark contrast in style between Mahomes and the freewheeling Chiefs and the more structured and fundamentally sound 49ers.
Super Bowl LIV
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
Date and Time: Sunday, February 2, 2020, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
NFL Betting Online Odds at Bookmaker.eu: Chiefs -1.5, 49ers +1.5, over under 54
Chiefs vs. 49ers TV Coverage: FOX
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl LIV Odds Analysis
The public basically sees the Chiefs as a small chalk due to Mahomes. His remarkable performances in the playoffs has convinced many bettors not to oppose him. Other handicappers see the 49ers as a more reliable team that was dominant without drama in the post season.
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City won the AFC West for the second consecutive season with a record of 12-4 straight up, 10-5-1 against the spread and 8-8 on totals. The Chiefs ranked fifth in the NFL for scoring offense and seventh for points allowed. In the playoffs the Chiefs rallied from a 24-0 deficit to defeat the Houston Texans 51-31 as 10-point chalks. That was followed up with a 35-24 win and cover over the Tennessee Titans as 7.5-point home favorites in the AFC Championship Game. KC rallied from an early 10-point deficit to beat the upstart Titans.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers finished with an NFC best 13-3 record and went 9-6-1 vs. the odds with 8-7 over the total. San Francisco ranked second for scoring offense and eighth for points allowed. In the playoffs the Niners easily paid in a 27-10 win over the Minnesota Vikings followed by a devastating 37-20 triumph over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game.
Key Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes (65.9% COMP, 4031 YDS, 8.3 AVG, 26 TD, 5 INT, 17 SACKS, 105.3 RTG), RB Damien Williams (111 ATT, 498 YDS, 4.5 AVG, 5 TD), TE Travis Kelce (97 REC, 1229 YDS, 12.7 AVG, 5 TD), S Tyrann Mathieu (75 TACKLES, 2 SACKS, 4 INT), PK Harrison Butker (34-38 FG, 45-48 XP)
Key 49ers: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (69.1% COMP, 3978 YDS, 8.4 AVG, 27 TD, 13 INT, 36 SACK, 102.0 RTG), RB Raheem Mostert (137 ATT, 772 YDS, 5.6 AVG, 8 TD), TE George Kittle (85 REC, 1053 YDS, 12.4 AVG, 5 TD), DE DeForest Buckner (62 TACKLES, 7.5 SACKS, 3 INT, 1 TD), PK Robbie Gould (23-31 FG, 41-42 XP)
Kansas City vs. San Francisco Against the Spread
The Chiefs are:
3-1 against the spread in their last four post season games
5-4 over the total in the post season
8-1 on the board in their last nine games as a chalk
4-5 under the total when laying points
6-2 vs. the odds head to head agiasnt the 49ers
3-1 over the total head to head with San Francisco
The 49ers are:
5-2-1 agiasnt the spread in their last eight post season games
1-4 under the total in post season
7-2 vs. the number in their last nine games as a dog
2-3 under the total when getting points
0-2 on the board in their last two games as a dog vs. the Chiefs
2-0 over the total when getting points vs. Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl LIV Selection
Each year the Super Bowl attracts everyone to the betting windows including casual gamblers that may not even have an actual interest in the matchup. It also attracts paralysis by analysis. Many gamblers fall into the trap of over thinking the game. Long time football insiders and observers have stated that they have never seen anything like what Patrick Mahomes has done in post season, especially in that rally from 24-0 down to Houston. Mahomes sparks an indominable Chiefs team attitude in which they never quit nor believe that they are out of a game. To put it another way Kansas City boasts the one game changer on the field in this one. Mahomes has proven he can take over a game and beat the very best.
Super Bowl LIV Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Super Bowl LIV Score Prediction: Chiefs 34, 49ers 24
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