It may surprise many gamblers and fans that sportsbooks now take in as much money on props as they do on the game itself. The props factor ties into the current fantasy sports craze. Add in the fact that everyone bets on the Super Bowl and you have an NFL Odds bonanza on your hands. At the onset of this week there was one player that stood apart from all others in the conversation about Super Sunday props betting. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has dominated headlines and the betting windows so far. And there will be several intriguing props matchups for Super Bowl LIV with Mahomes up against San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. While there are hundreds of available props, we’re going to focus on some of the most popular and main ones being offered this week.
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Props Factors to Keep in Mind
Overall the public gravitates towards over the total for most props so unders can often bring a better price. One of the great ironies of props is that the losing team may often have better player results as they are forced into using come from behind tactics. As is almost always the case “name brands” will draw the majority of casual money action. And there is never more casual public money bet on a single game than on the Super Bowl.
Who Will Throw More TD Passes?
Patrick Mahomes opened as the big favorite at -0.5, -165 with Jimmy Garoppolo at +0.5, +131. Consider that Mahomes has elevated his game to throw a total of eight touchdown passes in the post season. By comparison Garoppolo has thrown only one single TD pass. That is because the 49ers have been able to run at will in post season while the Chiefs have often played from behind.
Who Will Have More Passing Yards?
Mahomes opened at -65.5, -115 while Garoppolo was +65.5, -115. So far in the playoffs Mahomes has thrown for 615 yards in his two games compared to just 208 for Garoppolo. Even considering that the Chiefs had to play catchup much of the post season, while the 49ers have played ball control, there is little doubt Mahomes should have the most passing yards based on the Chiefs more dynamic capability and wide-open orientation.
Which Quarterback Will Have More Rushing Yards?
Garoppolo opened at +20.5, +117 with Mahomes at -20.5, -150. Mahomes would also seem to have a decided advantage as shown by his 106 yards rushing in post season compared to Garoppolo’s total of negative-one yard. Mahomes has proven to be extra dangerous when flushed all the way out of the pocket.
Who Will Have More Rushing Yards?
Raheem Mostert opened at -28.5, -113 with Damien Williams at +28.5, -116. Of course, Mostert became a national sensation with his whopping 220 yards and four touchdowns against Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game. But keep in mind Minnesota held him to only 58 yards in the divisional round. Williams gained 47 and 45 yards in in his two post season games for KC. San Francisco’s defense ranked 17th in the NFL against the rush which may leave the door open for a Williams surprise.
Who Will Have More Receiving Yards?
George Kittle was at +1.5, -104 with Travis Kelce at -1.5, -127. These are two of the best tight ends in pro football. However, Kelce has shown the greater ability to dominate. Against Houston in the divisional round he was a force of nature with 10 catches good for 134 yards and three touchdowns as he and Mahomes just ripped the game away from the Texans.
Which Kicker Will Have More Points?
Robbie Gould -110, Harrison Butker -120. San Francisco’s Gould is better known from his salad days with the Chicago Bears. Butker was sensational this year as the more consistent kicker for the Chiefs with 34 fields goals on 38 attempts including 16 field goals from 40 yards or longer. Few kickers have ever been as dominant.
Super Bowl LIV Props Picks: Patrick Mahomes more rushing and passing yards than Jimmy Garoppolo and Travis Kelce more receiving yards than George Kittle.
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