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Meaningless preseason games aren’t meaningless for players returning from injury. And the Houston Texans have several that can use some reps to get in game-shape. It was a season of what-ifs in 2017. What if Deshaun Watson didn’t get hurt? What if J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus were able to play a full season? And what if the Texans had a capable backup quarterback? We’ll never know the answers, but the Texans should be competitive in the AFC this season, as will the Kansas City Chiefs, who are breaking in a new quarterback.
This preseason Week 1 matchup will go down Thursday, August 9, 2018, at 8:30 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Houston Texans +2.5
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
Over/Under 34.5
Odds Analysis
Home field advantage usually means plenty during the preseason, and not surprisingly, we've got a very vanilla betting line with the Chiefs favored by 2.5-points. Andy Reid has been coaching long enough to know the outcome of a preseason game is down the list. He is just 36-40 during his career with a 9-11 mark in Week 1.
Quarterback Rotation
For all Watson did last season, let’s not forget he’s only in his second year and has plenty of work to do to become a polished quarterback. But, oh, what a first impression he made. Watson was just 3-3 in his six starts, but the Texans were one of the most dynamic offensive teams with him behind center.
Leading the team to more than 30 points in five straight games for the first time in franchise history, Watson rose to the top of the Rookie of the Year class. However, a knee injury in practice shelved him for the remainder of the year and the Texans averaged less than 13 points over the final nine games. We should see Watson get some reps followed by Brandon Weeden, who is penciled in as the backup. Joe Webb and Stephen Morris will battle for the No. 3 job.
Moving on from Alex Smith after a number of years, Andy Reid handed the starting job to 2017 top pick Patrick Mahomes, who started one game last season. Mahomes spent the season on the sideline learning the system and takes over with plenty of play makers by his side. He’s also working with a new offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy, so look for Mahomes to get a series or two of action.
Chad Henne is the backup, but he’s in a new system after coming over from Jacksonville. Former Raider Matt McGloin is also competing for the backup job and will get some second half reps. Rookie Chase Litton is the fourth QB on the roster and probably won’t see action until Week 2.
Coaching History
After dealing with several injuries to key players last season, Bill O’Brien got a pass following a 4-12 campaign. He’s essentially starting over with a veteran group and the exhibition season will be used to get his players game reps. The Texans will also take advantage of a full preseason slate after having their finale last year wiped out by Hurricane Harvey.
It’s no secret that Reid is not a fan of preseason games. He called them a necessary evil last year before posting a second straight 2-2 record. He is breaking in a new quarterback and offensive coordinator this year, so that may alter his attitude somewhat.
Free ATS Pick
The Texans are likely to go with their starters on the offensive line longer than usual given the fact that four of them are new to the system. And keeping Watson upright during the course of the year is tops on the group’s list, so getting comfortable with each other is an important key for Thursday’s matchup.
Winning during the preseason hasn’t been that much of a concern for Reid and the offense needs to get work with a new quarterback and new coordinator. As long as the team shows progress, the coach is happy. We will see regulars for at least one series on both sides, but it’s unlikely J.J. Watt takes the field for Houston. That shouldn’t matter too much in this game with the Texans pulling out the stops to get a win.
NFL Odds: Texans 23, Chiefs 22
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