The NFL regular season is hitting its stretch run, and by now bettors have a great idea of which teams are contenders and which teams are already looking forward to 2020. While that certainly helps weekly wagering, there are always things like injuries and other events that add some wrinkles to the process. The wiseguys do a great job of getting ahead of the trends, and that pays off more often than not due to the more favorable odds compared to the rest of the betting public. There has been some early movement already in Week 13, which is something that can inform the bettors as the games get closer to kickoff.
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Odds Analysis
The Chicago Bears have not played as well as hoped this season, in large part due to the regression of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears are on the road on Thanksgiving Day against the Detroit Lions, which a few weeks ago looked like a bad matchup. However, the Lions do not have starting quarterback Matthew Stafford and now backup Jeff Driskel is banged up with his availability in doubt. The Bears started as 1.5-point favorites in this matchup and now it has increased to -4. Chicago’s passing game is still suspect but the defense is talented and could dominate Detroit. The scoring total has also dropped from 41 to 37 points based on Detroit’s uncertain quarterback situation.
The Baltimore Ravens have looked like the best team in the NFL of late and the betting public seems all in on this team. Baltimore is preparing for a titanic showdown with the one-loss San Francisco 49ers next time out and were pegged as 4.5-point favorites when the line was revealed. It is all the way up to six points as the Ravens are at home and playing at an extremely high level.
The Philadelphia Eagles are on the road against the Miami Dolphins, and they have struggled so much of late that the original spread was placed at only 7.5 points. While Philly is struggling, the Dolphins are one of the worst teams the NFL has seen in the past several years. It is not a surprise to know that the spread has increased all the way up to 10 points. Now the Eagles are going to have to win by a significant amount on the road to cover. The wiseguys who got in at 7.5 points are in much better shape.
The Los Angeles Chargers have struggled this season but they are still favored on the road against the Denver Broncos and they have some momentum. The spread opened at -1.5 and now Los Angeles is listed at -3. The Chargers have a talented team that has failed to put it all together, but they are the favorites because of the quarterback issues for the Broncos. Brandon Allen has not done a good job in place of Joe Flacco and now it seems likely that rookie Drew Lock will make his NFL debut against Los Angeles. The betting public does not have much faith in Lock to have a good debut in this one as Denver’s odds keep getting worse.
NFL Pick
A game that has seen a ton of movement is the matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Jaguars opened as 4.5-point favorites but now it is Tampa Bay which is favored by a point. Tampa Bay and Jacksonville have the same record this season but the Bucs have clearly played better football. The betting public is on the right track, and the wiseguys that jumped on this line at its open are in tremendous shape. Even with as much as the spread has moved, the Bucs are the right pick to cover.
NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover as 1-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars
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