Two of our fades paid off last week, proving that sometimes it’s better to be a leader than a follower. Our lone miss came on Sunday night when we faded the Chiefs, who were the early pick of the betting public at +3.5 for their tilt with the Pats. KC covered the line but saw their perfect season come to an end in an epic clash between AFC heavyweights. The Pats will once again make our list this week, but they are the team we’re fading for their matchup with the Chicago Bears.
With the public backing Jacksonville and Cleveland last week, we went the other way and scored big with a pair of straight up wins. The Cowboys threw down on the Jags while Baker Mayfield and the Browns proved they aren’t ready to be taken seriously yet. The Vikings are a 3-point favorite for their Thursday Night Football matchup with Arizona, but are they the best play of Week 7? We say no, and we’ll examine this matchup and a few others as our fade the public play picks of the week.
New England Patriots ( -3.5 ) at Chicago Bears
One could assume the Pats are back after knocking off the previously undefeated Chiefs on Sunday night for their third straight victory. Tom Brady and the Pats took care of business against the Dolphins, Colts and Chiefs, however all three of those games came in the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. New England’s only two losses came on the road where they lost by a combined 27 points to Jacksonville and Detroit. The Pats have regained the confidence of bettors with 82 percent of the early action in their favor for this matchup.
Playoff talk in Chicago was put on hold after the Bears were upset by the Dolphins, with backup Brock Osweiler picking them apart. It was a frustrating loss for a team that surprised the football world over the first quarter, but it may have been just what Chicago needed. The Bears may have been thinking they are as good as everyone was touting them. Despite the loss, the offense performed well and the Bears have a similar structure to that of the Chiefs since Matt Nagy implemented many of the schemes during his time as Andy Reid’s OC. And Chicago’s playmakers rival those of KC, and we saw the difficulty New England had containing them. The Bears defense will be better and the offense may produce enough to pull off an upset.
Minnesota Vikings ( -3 ) at New York Jets
Don’t look now but the Jets are a .500 team and back in the thick of the AFC race after winning consecutive games for the first time in a year. And the decision to draft Sam Darnold is looking better each week. The Vikings have put back-to-back wins together as well and the defense played another strong game in a win over the Cardinals last week. The betting public is behind the Vikings in the early going for this matchup with over 91 percent of the action for Minnesota.
Thanks to their top draft pick, the Jets rebuild is ahead of schedule and fans in the Big Apple are cautiously optimistic. Darnold completed 80 percent of his passes against the Colts for 280 yards and a pair of touchdowns and has five scoring passes in his last two games. That effort came a week after the Jets pummeled Denver with over 300 yards on the ground. A balanced attack has helped the offense and the defense has performed well. Wins over Philly and Arizona have the Vikings feeling good, and the play of their defense is a big reason. But the group has holes and Darnold will exploit those to keep the Jets close. New York may not win this game, but I like them to hang around and be competitive.
Denver Broncos ( -2.5 ) at Arizona Cardinals
Denver is getting nearly 70 percent of the early action for its Thursday night tilt with the Cards, but that’s likely because Arizona has done little to inspire its backers. The Broncos have some big names playing defense, but the group hasn’t performed during a four-game losing streak. They allowed Isaiah Crowell and Todd Gurley to run for over 200 yards in the last two games and the Cards are looking to break out.
We’ve said all along that Arizona has talent on offense and Josh Rosen is the quarterback of the future. The team has performed better since he took over, but it needs more. If Arizona can run the football with David Johnson and keep its defense off the field to prevent those guys from getting gassed, the Cards have a good shot at their second win of the season.
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