Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants is a solid favorite to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award this season. Barkley is listed at odds of +125, while quarterbacks Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns and Josh Rosen of the Arizona Cardinals are the only other players listed at single-digit odds. Will one of the favorites win the award or will a longshot surprise and come through at big odds? Let’s take a look and make some predictions.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Saquon Barkley +125
Baker Mayfield +568
Josh Rosen +812
Josh Allen +1314
Derrius Guice +1314
Lamar Jackson +1491
Sam Darnold +2168
Rashaad Penny +2168
Ronald Jones II +2401
Sony Michel +2507
Calvin Ridley +2762
Nick Chubb +3128
Royce Freeman +3137
DJ Moore +3380
Keke Coutee +4259
Courtland Sutton +5000
Christian Kirk +6600
Anthony Miller +6600
James Washington +7000
Kerryon Johnson +8000
Nyheim Hines +12500
Mark Walton +15000
Antonio Callaway +15000
J'Mon Moore +15000
Michael Gallup +15000
Field - Any Other Player +3091
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We really could make this category all about Barkley, as he is the clear choice to win the award. He is the best running back the Giants have had in a long time and he is playing on an offense that should be pretty good with Odell Beckham Jr. and Evan Engram opening up the field for Barkley.
I’ll put Mayfield and Rosen in this category as well, but unless they really surprise, the award is Barkley’s to lose. Mayfield isn’t even starting the season for the Browns, as Tyrod Taylor is the top quarterback for Cleveland. The Browns are expected to be improved, but it is hard to make a case for taking a player to win Offensive Rookie of the Year when he isn’t even going to start the season on the field.
The situation is the same for Rosen with Arizona, as Sam Bradford will begin the season as the starter. It is probably only a matter of time before Bradford gets hurt and once Rosen gets the job he may never give it up. I think Rosen has more value in terms of the odds than Mayfield, but again, it is hard to take a player who is not going to start Week 1.
Darkhorses
There are two players in this category in Allen and Guice. It is hard to like Allen, as he is going to be playing on a Buffalo team that really looks bad on offense. The team might not even have LeSean McCoy and there are no receiving threats on the Bills that are any good. And it is not a given Allen begins the season as the starter, as he is competing with A.J. McCarron.
There could be some excellent value on Guice winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year. He will be playing on a solid offense in Washington under a coach that would like to run the ball. Alex Smith is a quarterback who needs a strong running game and Guice could put up good numbers in his rookie year.
Longshots
There are really no longshots that I like, but I’ll mention a couple anyway. Sam Darnold of the Jets should eventually win the starting job and he could be the most talented of the rookie quarterbacks this season. He is a big play quarterback, but it is hard to like him on a bad New York team.
There has been some odds movement on Sony Michel of the New England Patriots. He plays on a great offense in New England and he could get a lot of action at the goal line. He has great size and speed and we know that Bill Belichick pounds the ball when in close. The problem with taking Michel is that you never know from week to week who will get the bulk of the action at running back for the Patriots.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Predictions
It is all about two players for me with this award. I think Barkley has the most talent and is in a great situation in New York, so he is my top pick. I do, however, think there is value on taking Guice at odds of +1314. He should get a ton of work and if Barkley slips up at all, Guice could win this award.
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