The public got the better of us last week with three teams backed on the early line going on for a win and a cover. It’s always a gamble to go against the home team and we were undone by a pair of hosts last week. An outburst of points by the Cowboys was certainly unexpected and they parlayed that into a cover win over the Skins on Turkey Day. And we were the last ones holding out hope that the Jacksonville Jaguars would turn a corner and end their losing streak. They were after all playing the Buffalo Bills. But that didn’t work out for us either.
We posted a solid 2-0-1 record the week before when going against the public and there’s no reason why we can’t get back in the saddle. Everybody loves the Saints as they put their 10-game straight up and nine-game ATS winning streak on the line against Dallas in another Thursday matchup. Both teams played on Thanksgiving so they have their usual game-day routine leading up to the contest. The Saints are giving 7.5-points on the road and have the backing of 93 percent of the public on the early line.
Let’s take a look at a few of our Week 13 fade the public play picks of the week.
Carolina Panthers ( -3 ) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While all losses are bad, some are worse than others. The Panthers can take solace in knowing that they played a good game and a few mistakes proved costly. It doesn’t take away the sting of losing, but they know that they haven’t been beaten. However, at some point those losses have to turn into wins, and that hasn’t happened in three weeks. The last two defeats were by a combined four points. That’s enough to keep over 70 percent of the public behind them as the Panthers head to Tampa as a 3-point favorite for a division tussle with the Bucs.
The Bucs are in a good position for this game and that’s why I like them at home with a field goal. They ended a losing streak with a defensive effort Dewey Selmon would be proud of, holding the Niners to nine points with a pair of interceptions and four quarterback sacks. And they have nothing to lose moving forward. Jameis Winston is playing for a job and needs to show he can perform. He did a bang up job last week throwing for 312 yards and two touchdowns without committing a turnover. And Carolina made the Bucs look silly a few weeks back slapping a 42-28 loss on them, so it’s time for a little payback.
Los Angeles Rams ( -10 ) at Detroit Lions
I like the Rams and I think they have what it takes to make a serious run at the Super Bowl, but they have been an embarrassment on defense lately and that could be enough to keep the Lions within 10 points. Sure, the group scored two touchdowns and intercepted three passes, but they also surrendered 546 total yards and nearly eight yards per play. That Monday night win over the Chiefs made believers out of many who were on the fence, and the Rams are getting backed by 90 percent of the public on the early line. And why not with an offense that scores at will.
The Lions definitely have their work cut out for them, and being challenged has a way of bringing out the best in teams. I’m cringing while making this pick, but the Lions have shown the ability to snap back when faced with adversity, and they are certainly up against it now having lost four of their last five games. And catching the Rams coming off a bye is what keeps the home team close enough.
Arizona Cardinals ( +14 ) at Green Bay Packers
I’m not sure if this is a record for most double-digit spreads in a season, but it shows you just how bad the Cardinals have been, and how good their opponents are. Faced with a two-touchdown opening line, the Cards will be playing their fifth game while getting at least 10 points. They are 1-2-1 ATS in the previous four and got whacked by the Chargers, 45-10, as a 14-point dog just last week. Their only two wins of the season are over the 49ers, another sign that Steve Wilks might be in over his head.
This is an absolute must game for the Packers and they get the luxury of playing at home, which is a huge benefit for them. They are 4-0-1 straight up and 3-2 against the line at Lambeau, covering the 11-point closing line in a win over the Dolphins a few weeks ago. It’s hard to pass up 14 points against a struggling team, but the Packers are much better at home and that’s worth enough on the line to cover against what over 80 percent of the public is saying.
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