We proved a point last week by going against the public on the early NFL betting lines and hitting on all three games. So much is about perception and the Oakland Raiders were coming off a big upset win over Pittsburgh as they headed into Cincinnati for last week’s tilt. That doesn’t eliminate the fact that the Raiders are still a bad team and have been even worse on the road, with a narrow victory over Arizona as their only road success. Still, a majority of the public backed the Raiders and 3-points. Cincy was having its own issues and was down some key performers, but we backed the home team and came away with a nice victory.
Going against the public with Detroit and Carolina also proved profitable as both teams covered the line despite losing the game. Heading into Week 16 we have a number of critical matchups that will determine playoff positioning. The Chargers upset Kansas City last week and no team in the AFC has a better record than the Bolts. The only problem is they play in the same division as KC and lose the tie-breaker, so winning out and hoping for a KC loss is their only recourse. The Bolts are backed by 62 percent of the public on the early betting lines for their matchup with the Ravens, who are also seeking a division title and playoff berth.
Let’s take a look at a few of our Week 16 fade the public play picks of the week.
Philadelphia Eagles ( -1 ) vs. Houston Texans
Nick Foles has brought the magic back and the Eagles’ supporters have followed. After upsetting the Rams as a two-touchdown underdog last week, the defending champs are still alive and the Super Bowl MVP is at the helm. Another loss eliminates Philly from playoff contention, but it’s hard to go against Foles after what he accomplished in last year’s playoffs. It should be a good one on Sunday with the Texans looking to wrap up the AFC South and bouncing back from their first loss in a few months to move closer to that goal.
Houston hit the board as a 1.5-point favorite, but with the Eagles getting so much attention the line quickly jumped the fence in their favor. And as we mentioned earlier, so much is relates to current form and the Eagles had a huge win in front of a national audience on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Texans are just going about their business winning 10 of their last 11 games and have overtaken the Patriots for the No. 2 seed in the conference. Philly caught the Rams in a funk and won’t be so lucky this week. I’ll take the visitors despite three-quarters of the public backing the Eagles early in the week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ( +7 ) at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys played great football during a five-game winning streak that allowed them to take control of the NFC East. A hiccup was almost expected and it occurred last week in a shutout loss to the Colts. It was a disappointing outcome for the Boys, who can clinch a tie for the division title by beating the Bucs on Sunday. Maybe a loss is just what Dallas needed after all those wins. It’s been another lost season for Tampa Bay, but they did compete last week against the Ravens, eventually falling 20-12. Still, the Bucs are getting plenty of support backed by 7-points for this matchup.
With nearly 60 percent of the early action on the Bucs, I have to go against the trend. Dallas will feed Ezekiel Elliott to one of the league’s worst defensive units and I expect the Boys to be more upbeat on that side of the football. They ran into a hot team in the Colts on the road and didn’t handle the situation very well. That will change this week after the division race tightened up a bit. Besides, the Boys have been special at home with a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS record inside Jerry’s World.
Denver Broncos ( -2.5 ) at Oakland Raiders
Just when Vance Joseph started to feel more secure about his job, Denver embarked on a two-game losing streak that ended its playoff chances. This was supposed to be the soft part of the schedule after dealing with the Chiefs twice, the Rams, Houston, Chargers and Pittsburgh. The Broncos came out of that stretch in decent shape and set themselves up for a playoff run with a win over Cincinnati three weeks ago. But losses to San Francisco and Cleveland set them back. Now they are playing out the string.
Despite the slide that may eventually cost Joseph his job the Broncos are being backed by a lot of people for this game, and why not? Oakland is an absolute mess, but the Silver and Black knew that going in after dealing away all its prized assets. The team is being molded into what Jon Gruden wants, and we know he isn’t going anywhere after inking that hefty deal. There isn’t a lot of confidence in the Raiders at this point, but there’s less in the Broncos after watching them self-destruct last week. I’ll take the home team and the points even though close to 90 percent of the public is going the other way.
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