Our total plays from last week are a good lesson in why you don’t always have to wait for the line or spread to move. Sometimes the best number hits the board early. We gobbled up the under for the Bears-Vikings game when the total was 46 and it paid off. The number was wagered down to 44 by kickoff and wouldn’t you know the teams split the difference, combining for 45 points. We also cashed a winning ticket when the Broncos and Chargers played below the total of 47, just adding to our recent heater that had us go 9-3 on our top total plays over the last four weeks. With touchdowns and points being scored at an all-time high in the NFL, there are still winners to be had when betting the under.
Let’s take a look at a few Week 12 top total plays to help line your pockets.
Top Total Plays of Week 12
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Under 41
The Redskins didn’t score a lot of points when Alex Smith was playing, so it’s hard to expect a breakout game offensively under Colt McCoy. The backup is solid and the Skins won’t be hugely affected by the loss of Smith, but McCoy hasn’t played much or thrown many passes over the last four seasons. And this game has all the makings of a defensive struggle. Jay Gruden will have a conservative game plan in place, even though McCoy probably knows the system better than the coach since he’s been there since 2014.
The acquisition of Amari Cooper hasn’t changed the dynamics of the Cowboys too much. They still have the same boring approach and rely too much on Ezekiel Elliott. When it works the Boys can win games, and with Zeke running for 273 yards the last two weeks, they won games. Dallas has scored more than 30 points in a game once and they have scored less than 20 point five times. They rely on a stingy, underrated defense, and that’s what’s going to get us under the total.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Over 46
Eli Manning and the Giants offense have to feel pretty good about facing the banged up Eagles secondary. And the Eagles need to regroup after a couple of painful losses. The teams in the NFC East are separated by a game as you go down the standings board with the Giants in the cellar. However, two straight wins has them thinking that just maybe they can make a run, and given the state of the division, who knows. It’s not going to happen, but it’s a neat storyline. Another neat storyline is the recent play of New York’s skill players.
The Giants were averaging less than 19 points per game entering their tilt with San Francisco two weeks ago. They scored 65 points combined beating the Niners and Bucs with Manning, Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. leading the charge. Eli completed 17 of 18 with two scores last week and has five touchdown passes with no interceptions during the streak. Barkley ran for 142 yards and two scores against Tampa, and OBJ has three of this five TD grabs over the last two outings. Philly just got chewed for nearly 550 yards by the Saints and the defense is in worse shape now than it was before that game. I have to take the over in this one, and so should you.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Pick: Over 37.5
We had a game with a total this low just a few weeks ago and we watched the over cash by two touchdowns. Ironically, the Bills were one of the teams involved with their tilt against the Jets set with an over/under of 37.5. Buffalo rattled off 31 first half points and over bettors were winners in the third quarter. Now, that’s not going to happen here, at least I don’t think it will. But it takes very little to get above such a low number, which is why I’m betting on the over.
The Jags showed some punch last week with Leonard Fournette back in the lineup. And the Bills are expected to have Josh Allen behind center. We also have two teams that are generous with the football. The Bills have turned it over 22 times while the Jags have 20 giveaways. That leads to shorter fields when occurring in your own end, and there’s always the possibility of defensive scores. The Bills allowed Chicago to scare a pair of defensive touchdowns a few weeks back, and will help get over the low total.
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