For the first time this season we saw a majority of games play below the closing total with the under going 9-4 last week. Is it a sign that the oddsmakers are making the proper adjustments on the totals? Or are the teams playing a better brand of defense? Who knows, maybe it’s a combination of both. But with all the points and touchdowns being scored, taking the over isn’t an automatic winner. We hit on two of our three top total plays last week with the Broncos going over the total by themselves in a win over the hapless Cardinals. We also went against the Saints and their dynamic offense and the gamble paid off. It took a missed extra point to cash the ticket, but we’ll take it. Week 8 of the NFL regular season offers up some fascinating matchups and we’ll take a look at a few top total plays to help line your pockets.
Top Total Plays Of Week 8
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Over 41.5
Jacksonville’s problems on offense are a major factor why the total opened as the lowest on the board for Week 8. The Jags have had more than twice as many turnovers than touchdowns over the last four games and they’ve scored exactly seven points in each of their last two contests. Blake Bortles was benched for the second half of last week’s game after losing a pair of fumbles and leading the offense nowhere. The unit has been ravaged by injuries and I’m thinking this is a good team that’s just going through a rough stretch. Other than the injuries not a lot has changed for the group that came within about 10 minutes of advancing to last season’s Super Bowl.
Many thought these clubs would be fighting for the top spot in their respective conference with a meeting in Super Bowl 53 the ultimate destination. It hasn’t worked out for either team so far with both sitting a game below .500 entering Week 8. The Eagles have had issues of their own offensively, but they have weapons and Carson Wentz is looking more comfortable. This isn’t going to be a slugfest by any means, but I do believe the teams have more in them to produce points at a higher level than what we’ve seen. And the total is very manageable at 41.5.
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions
Pick: Under 49
It’s not the Legion of Boom, but the Seahawks are playing a stingy brand of defense that might remind folks in the Pacific Northwest of the glory days. Sparked by a strong defensive effort, the Seahawks have won three of their last four games to climb back in the NFC playoff picture. Both teams are 3-3 heading into this matchup and there are plenty of playoff implications with this being a conference tilt. With plenty at stake the games typically take on a more pressurized feel and I expect that to happen here.
The Lions will try and work on a run game that had an epiphany last week. With Kerryon Johnson scampering for 158 yards, the Lions were destructive against the Fins. They likely won’t have that kind of success against the Seahawks, who clamped down on Derek Carr and the Raiders the last time out. Seattle is coming off its bye and could have K.J. Wright back in the lineup for the first time this season, giving the defense an added boost to shut down Matthew Stafford.
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Under 53
The Saints did us a solid last week playing below the total on one of our top total plays. Like we said last week, it’s hard to pick against the Saints and their potent offense, but they play a different game on the road. The numbers aren’t as staggering away from the Superdome and in their last 16 road games with a total of at least 50 points, the under is 11-5. We’ve also watched both teams pick up the pace defensively over the past few weeks.
The teams combined to score 53 points in last season’s playoff matchup, but it took a miraculous finish for the Vikings to come out ahead, scoring on the Minneapolis Miracle with no time left on the clock. That should be motivation for the Saints, who’ve allowed an average of 20 points while cashing the under twice in the last three games.
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