It’s easy to be a follower when it comes to betting on the NFL. If the public is pounding a certain team, that must be the right pick. Easy there, that’s not always the case. With a little in-depth research and some sound reasoning, we can come up with a picks against the public that will have a better chance of paying out at the betting window. We hit a winner right here last week with the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were faded by the masses after a horrendous start. That changed with a manhandling of Atlanta.
Sunday Night Football has a marquee matchup with the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs visiting the defending AFC champion New England Patriots. At 5-0 KC is certainly the class of the conference and 88 percent of the public is backing the visitors in early wagering at BookMaker.eu. Are the Chiefs the best play at +3.5? We say no, and we’ll examine this matchup and a few others as our fade the public play picks of the Week.
Kansas City Chiefs ( +3.5 ) at New England Patriots
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have become the biggest story in the NFL this season. With their second-year signal caller at the helm and a cadre of weapons at his disposal, the Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring at 35 points per game and they have the backing of nearly 90 percent of the betting public on early wagers. We thought the Chiefs would be tested last week against the Jags, who reached the AFC Championship last season. Instead, KC got a gritty defensive effort and jumped out to a 23-0 lead before cruising to a 30-14 win as a 3-point home favorite. Not only have the Chiefs been good on the field, they’ve been good to their backers, improving to 5-0 ATS.
The Pats went through their early season struggles that forced bettors to fade them and raised questions about the team’s well-being. Putting that nonsense aside, Tom Brady and Co. have looked the part the last two weeks, steamrolling the Dolphins and easily handling the Colts. The Pats aren’t about to give up their crown without a fight and playing at home for the third consecutive week will be what the Pats need to take down KC. New England is 3-0 SU and ATS at Gillette Stadium and nobody prepares his team better than Bill Belichick.
Jacksonville Jaguars ( -3 ) at Dallas Cowboys
There’s a lot going on in Big D right now and it’s not very good for the Cowboys. They have no offense outside of Ezekiel Elliott, owner Jerry Jones is questioning decisions of his head coach and the Boys have stumbled to a 2-3 SU and ATS record. Because of all the distractions, the Jags are the favorite of the betting public with three-quarters of the action on the visitors. But the Jags have problems of their own and they are quickly fading from elite status in the AFC. Against one of the NFL’s worst defenses, the Jags managed 14 points and Blake Bortles was responsible for five turnovers in a loss to the Chiefs.
Injuries will impact the Jacksonville offense moving forward and the Cowboys have an underrated defense that can slow and stop the Jags. Now, if Dallas can only do something on the other side of the football. The Boys score just 16.6 points per game and they’ve topped the 20-point mark once. It’s time for Dallas to get a little creative and less predictable on offense, and with his job on the line expect Jason Garrett to open things up. And for that reason I like the Boys to win this game outright.
Cleveland Browns ( pk ) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers went more than a season as an answer to a trivia question, but they are no longer the last team to lose to the Browns. And things are definitely changing in Cleveland. Thanks to their win over the Ravens last week, the Browns are a .500 team through five weeks and Baker Mayfield has been given the keys to the city. Since Mayfield took over midway through the Jets game and led the team to a comeback victory, the Browns are 2-1 and should’ve had a win in Oakland. That they were able to bounce back from that loss and beat division rival Baltimore is a good sign.
Before we start printing Browns playoff tickets, let’s remember they haven’t been a well-oiled machine in any of their games. Mayfield makes rookie mistakes, the kicking game is a crap shoot and the defense gave up a bunch of points and yards to the Raiders. And with the Chargers coming in, expect Philip Rivers to have a field day against the Browns secondary. And the Bolts defense looked like the unit most expected in shutting down the Raiders last week. I like the Chargers to win this even though 72 percent of the public says otherwise.
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