Julio Jones is the favorite to lead the league in receiving yards according to NFL prop betting odds, so his over/under for receiving yards this season is the highest on the board. Jones has been one of the league’s top receivers since breaking into the league in 2011, and he is poised for another incredible year. Is that enough for him to go over his total though?
Julio Jones 2019 Receiving Yards
Over 1500.5 +110
Under 1500.5 -140
Odds Analysis
In three of the last four seasons, Julio Jones has led the NFL in receiving yards per game. He has finished with 1500 receiving yards or more three times in his career, but Jones has averaged 100 receiving yards or more per game in five of his last six seasons. Injuries kept him from going over 1500 yards in two of those seasons, so that’s something to have in the back of your mind when betting this prop.
Offensive Scheme
Atlanta is going to have one of the most wide-open offenses in the NFL, and Matt Ryan is expected to be one of the league leaders in passing yards with all the weapons at his disposal. In addition to having a six-time Pro Bowl WR in Julio Jones, Ryan also has Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu to throw the ball too.
While some would argue that having all those options will decrease the likelihood of Jones going over 1500 yards this season, recent history doesn’t bare that out. Ryan loves throwing the ball to his top option, and Jones has seen an average of 162.6 targets per season over the last five years.
The Falcons might throw the ball even more than they have in the past too with Dirk Koetter back at offensive coordinator. Koetter was the Falcons’ offensive coordinator from 2012 to 2014, and he loves to highlight the passing game. Ryan has spent 11 seasons in the league and the three seasons where he threw the ball the most were the three seasons that Koetter was the team’s OC.
Injury Risk
There is at least a moderate injury risk with Jones. He sustained a knee injury in college that forced him to miss a game, and he broke his toe while preparing for the NFL Scouting Combine.
As a rookie, he missed three games with strained hamstrings. In 2013, he missed 11 games after breaking his foot, and he sustained a hip injury that caused him to miss a game in 2014. The last time he missed a game was back in 2016 when a sprained big toe cost him two games, but he has dealt with various levels of sprains over the last five years.
The Play
If you could guarantee that Jones would stay healthy throughout the 2019 season, I would take the over on this prop. I think Jones is going to explode for 1600 or 1700 yards this year, and Atlanta is going to have one of the best offenses in the NFL.
The injury history is worrisome though, particularly for a total this high. Jones has missed at least one game in four of his eight seasons in the league, and if he missed even one game, it would be significantly harder for him to go over this total.
Even with that lingering in the back of my head, I think over is the right play. The offense is going to be prolific with Koetter calling the plays, and Jones has been able to stay healthy in three of the last four seasons. The ever-increasing emphasis on player safety will help Jones remain on the field and he’ll have a massive year.
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