The Los Angeles Chargers took a chance on Keenan Allen, and he has rewarded them for their faith. Allen signed a big extension with the Chargers in the summer of 2016 despite only breaking 1,000 yards in one of his previous three seasons, and the decision to extend him didn’t look great after Allen tore his ACL in the first game of that season. He was a wildcard coming into 2017, but he has developed into one of the NFL’s top receivers in the last two years. Allen has been voted to two straight Pro Bowls, and he will look to make it three in a row in 2019.
Keenan Allen 2019 Receiving Yards
Over 1200.5 +100
Under 1200.5 -130
Odds Analysis
Keenan Allen’s most successful seasons have been his last two campaigns. Allen was targeted 159 times by Philip Rivers in 2017, and 136 passes came his way last season. He has become Rivers’ favorite target since Antonio Gates started to decline, and he should see plenty of passes thrown his way once again in 2019.
Offensive Scheme
Allen had shown promise from early in his career, but it wasn’t until Ken Whisenhunt became the team’s offensive coordinator that it was realized. Whisenhunt has highlighted talented receivers throughout his career as an OC and a head coach, forcing Pittsburgh to embrace the passing game and calling Larry Fitzgerald’s number often during his time in Arizona.
Whisenhunt’s scheme should see Allen receive plenty of targets as the top wide receiver, since Mike Williams has yet to deliver in the way the Chargers believed he would when they drafted him in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft.
The return of Hunter Henry could take away some of Allen’s targets though. Henry was expected to have a breakout campaign in 2018, but the young tight end suffered a season-ending injury in the summer and didn’t play a down. The Chargers brought back Antonio Gates for one more year after Henry was injured, but Gates failed to have much of an impact as a 38-year-old. As a result, the Chargers didn’t throw to the tight end, but they should throw Henry’s way often in 2019.
There is also concern for the offense as a whole due to Melvin Gordon’s protracted holdout. The Chargers and Gordon are at an impasse that seems likely to extend into the season, but unlike others, I don’t believe it will affect this offense too much. Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson can combine to replace most of Gordon’s production.
Injury Risk
Allen’s career has been plagued by injuries, so this is a factor to consider when wagering on this prop. He suffered a PCL sprain that led to him missing the final few games of his collegiate career, and he failed to play all 16 games in his first four seasons in the league.
The receiver went down with a broken collarbone at the tail end of the 2014 season, and a kidney injury sidelined him for the last half of the 2015 campaign. The aforementioned ACL tear in 2016 led to him playing just one half of football before his year was over, but he has been able to stay healthy the last two seasons.
The Play
One of my strongest plays of all the NFL player props listed is Keenan Allen finishing under 1200 receiving yards. I believe Henry’s return will lead to a significant drop in production for Allen as Rivers looks to his young tight end more and more, and there is an ever-present fear of Allen being injured. Additionally, Rivers is no spring chicken either, and none of the three back-up quarterbacks on the roster is particularly adept at moving the ball through the air.
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