The Detroit Lions are expecting big things from Kenny Golladay in 2019. Golladay became the Lions’ go-to guy after Marvin Jones went down with an injury and Golden Tate was traded away midway through last season, and he thrived under the spotlight. He shook off a disappointing rookie campaign to finish with over 1,000 yards, and he is out to build off that in 2019. The oddsmakers have him favored to post consecutive 1,000-yard seasons per the NFL prop betting odds.
Kenny Golladay 2019 Receiving Yards
Over 1000.5 -145
Under 1000.5 +115
Odds Analysis
Golladay is entering his third season in the NFL. He failed to impress as a rookie, but he established himself as a deep ball threat last season, averaging 15.2 yards per reception. However, he was very boom or bust. Golladay finished with 60 receiving yards or less in half of his final 10 games and he only went over 100 yards three times all year.
Offensive Scheme
Marvin Jones is likely to see the bulk of the targets for Detroit once again this season. Jones led the Lions in receiving yards in 2016 and 2017, and he was probably going to lead the team in receiving again before going down with an injury. That will limit the opportunities for Golladay to thrive.
Additionally, the Lions gave Matt Stafford two underneath options in the offseason. Detroit used the ninth overall pick in the draft to take tight end TJ Hockenson, and he figures to play an immediate role in the passing game. Danny Amendola will be used as a possession receiver too, and Stafford will look his way often on third down.
New offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell put an emphasis on the short passing game and the ground game when he was in Seattle, and it seems that he is ready to do that once more in Detroit given the options available. The team is very excited with running back Kerryon Johnson and he will receive a lot of touches, while Golladay is mainly used to stretch defenses. That stands to make him even more of a boom or bust play in 2019.
Injury Risk
We have seen Golladay miss games due to injury in each of his two previous seasons. As a rookie, Golladay missed five games due to a pulled hamstring, and he appeared to be cautious with it upon his return. He avoided a similar injury in 2018, but he missed the season finale because of a bruised sternum after a hard hit in Detroit’s penultimate game.
The Play
I’m a little surprised that the early action has been on the over. In the modern-day NFL, it’s not too difficult to finish with over 1,000 yards, but Golladay only just managed to get there despite being the primary target for much of the season.
The Lions have a plethora of options in 2019. Marvin Jones is back to take away targets, and TJ Hockenson will see a ton of balls thrown his way. Matt Stafford loves throwing to athletic tight ends (like Eric Ebron), and he will make sure that Hockenson is featured from the outset.
Head coach Matt Patricia will want the Lions to establish the run too. He is a more defensive-minded coach, and Detroit has its most exciting back since Barry Sanders in Kerryon Johnson. That should lead to plenty of opportunities for Johnson to carry the rock.
Golladay is going to make some big plays, but he’s not reliable enough to take the over here. Last year feels like a flash in the pan in some ways, and I’ll jump at the chance to grab the under as an underdog.
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