The team that led the league in passing yards last season will be a surprise to many fans. It wasn’t Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, or New Orleans…it was Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers were playing from behind a lot, so they let it fly through the air with both Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick posting big numbers through the air throughout the course of the season. That led to Mike Evans having the biggest season of his career, as the wide receiver from Texas A&M finished the year with over 1,500 receiving yards for the first time.
Mike Evans 2019 Receiving Yards
Over 1350.5 +115
Under 1350.5 -145
Odds Analysis
Mike Evans has been a productive man during his time in Tampa Bay. Evans has finished with over 1,000 yards in each of his five years with the Buccaneers, and he has led the team in targets each season. He is averaging 143.4 targets per year coming into this campaign, and Evans will almost certainly be the most targeted receiver on the team again barring injury.
Offensive Scheme
In the offseason, the Buccaneers parted ways with Dirk Koetter and brought in Bruce Arians as a last-ditch effort to salvage the career of Jameis Winston. Winston is in the last year of his contract, and he has failed to live up to his promise as a No. 1 pick. Immaturity and poor decision making have sidetracked him, but the organization is hoping that Arians will draw out Winston’s potential.
Arians likes to throw the ball a lot, and Winston could have the best numbers of his career in this system provided he can limit his mistakes. He has thrown double-digit interceptions in each of his four seasons in the league.
There’s zero doubt that Evans will be the top option at wide receiver, but he might see a lot of double coverage since there are no longer other proven targets at the position. Chris Godwin is the No. 2 receiver on the roster, and there is no longer an underneath threat like the team had with Adam Humphries. OJ Howard stands to see a lot of targets as the top tight end though.
Tampa threw the ball a ton last year partly due to the team’s inability to run the ball, and the Bucs haven’t really addressed that problem. Peyton Barber isn’t a very explosive runner, while Ronald Jones tries to cut everything outside and misses the hole way too often.
Injury Risk
Evans has been pretty healthy throughout his career, missing only three games in five years. He missed a game in his rookie season due to a groin injury, and a strained hamstring kept him out of Tampa’s season opener in 2015. His other absence was due to suspension, as he missed a game in 2017 after an illegal hit the previous week. Evans has played through a lot of minor injuries during his career, so that’s a good sign for over bettors.
The Play
While I expect Evans to get more attention from defenses this season with Desean Jackson and Adam Humphries off the roster, I still think he goes over his total. Evans is an elite receiver, and Arians will want to put the ball in his hands as much as he can. Tampa’s only real weapons are Evans and Howard, and both players should see a ton of targets since the Buccaneers running game is likely to run into trouble again.
This would be one of my favorite plays, but Tampa faces a lot of very good secondaries this year. Tennessee and Jacksonville have two excellent units, and the NFC West boasts some good coverage cornerbacks too. That makes this just a small play rather than a large one.
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