Of all the player futures, the one that has been hardest hit is the under on Mitch Trubisky’s passing yards. Everyone is skeptical about Trubisky’s ability to throw for more than 3900 yards this season despite having a solid sophomore campaign. The general consensus is that Trubisky benefitted from a soft schedule, and that he will regress even though he is entering his second season in Matt Nagy’s system. I don’t think that will happen.
Mitch Trubisky 2019 Passing Yards
Over 3900.5 +292
Under 3900.5 -400
Mitch Trubisky 2019 Touchdown Passes
Over 25.5 +108
Under 25.5 -134
Odds Analysis
Chicago was one of the surprise stories of 2018. The Bears were picked to come in dead last in the NFC North by most prognosticators, as no one believed in Trubisky or new head coach Matt Nagy. Instead, Trubisky and Chicago improved greatly and coasted to an NFC North title with a 12-4 record that earned Matt Nagy Coach of the Year honors. The former AFL star was able to implement a system that Trubisky grasped pretty easily, but the young quarterback showed he still needs to learn how to progress through his reads.
After a breakout year, no one will be sleeping on Trubisky in 2019. Chicago now has a first-place schedule, and the Bears aren’t going to be sneaking up on teams this season.
Offensive Scheme
If Trubisky is going to go over his totals, Anthony Miller is probably going to have a big year. The second-year receiver out of Memphis has turned a lot of heads this offseason, and Louis Riddick has already stated that Miller will be one of the breakout players of the 2019 season. Miller has all the tools to be a true WR1.
He will need to shine because none of the other receivers on the roster are reliable. Allen Robinson has not been the same since blowing out his knee in Jacksonville, and Taylor Gabriel has never been more than the third-best option on any team.
There are two X-Factors that can help Trubisky reach his over though. Trey Burton had a pretty good first season in Chicago last year, posting career-highs in every receiving category. Tarik Cohen is the more dangerous option though. Cohen has the speed and versatility to be deployed like Tyreek Hill, and he could catch 80 passes this season.
Injury Risk
We saw last year that Trubisky’s style puts him at a greater risk of getting injured than most other quarterbacks. He often tucked it and ran after making just one read, but he was a surprisingly good runner, and that kept the chains moving. That led to him missing two games due to injury though, so look for him to remain in the pocket more often after another year of learning Nagy’s offense.
The Play
It’s obvious that the initial number was set way too high. Most people expect some regression this season, but at these odds, it pays to go against the grain.
Nagy is one of the sharpest offensive minds in the game today. His experience as a quarterback in the AFL and learning under Andy Reid has helped him develop some excellent schemes and gameplans, and I believe that Trubisky will make a small step forward as a passer this season.
Chicago didn’t have an effective running game last season, but Trubisky still managed to throw for over 3,200 yards with mediocre receivers while largely making just a single read and getting the ball out of his hands.
Miller, Cohen, and Burton could be enough to get him over the total in both yards and touchdowns. All three are explosive playmakers that can pick up some YAC, making Trubisky’s over the play at these lucrative odds.
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