Patrick Mahomes was the story of last season. Mahomes tore up the league in his first season as the starting quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs, proving Andy Reid a genius for parting ways with Alex Smith in the offseason. The second-year quarterback threw for more than 5000 yards in his first season as the starter, showing a poise and presence that you rarely see out of young QBs. After such an incredible debut, the sky is the limit for Mahomes, and his NFL player props betting odds have the highest total of any quarterback in 2019.
Patrick Mahomes 2019 Passing Yards
Over 4650.5 +105
Under 4650.5 -137
Patrick Mahomes 2019 Touchdown Passes
Over 37.5 +114
Under 37.5 -144
Odds Analysis
Andy Reid has been a quarterback guru for two decades, and he has his most promising prospect yet in Mahomes. The young quarterback blew away all expectations en route to winning the 2018 NFL MVP award, and he has erased the narrative that Air Raid quarterbacks can’t succeed at the next level.
The Chiefs are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and Mahomes is the reason why. Even though his numbers are likely to take a dip after throwing for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in 2018, he could still finish well over his totals with a slight downturn.
Offensive Scheme
Roger Goodell decided not to suspend Tyreek Hill for any games this season, allowing Mahomes continued access to his most dangerous weapon. Hill has blazing fast speed, and that allows him to be deployed in a variety of ways that enhance his big play ability. He averaged 17 yards per reception last season and nearly had a 1,500-yard season.
Travis Kelce is one of the top tight ends in the league and gives Mahomes a reliable target over the middle. Kelce caught more than 100 passes on his way to being named a First Team All-Pro in 2018, and he could have an even bigger impact this season.
Aside from Hill and Kelce, Mahomes didn’t have any reliably good options last year. Sammy Watkins is perennially overrated, but Mecole Hardman could make an instant impact. The rookie out of Georgia is a big play threat in the mold of Hill, and he can stretch defenses with his speed.
Injury Risk
Mahomes has yet to suffer a serious injury at the college or pro level, but there is always a risk with a quarterback that likes to tuck it run. He ended last season with the second-most rushing attempts on Kansas City. The good news is that unlike other mobile quarterbacks that decide to take off pretty quickly, Mahomes is constantly looking to throw and that decreases the amount of big hits he takes. Additionally, he is lethal when he makes the decision to throw on the run.
The Play
It’s risky to go under with Mahomes, but it’s the right play in terms of passing yards and touchdowns. Kansas City doesn’t have proven options in the run game, and defenses are likely to play back more and make the Chiefs prove they can run the ball. At the very least, it will give them more of a chance to catch their breath against this quick strike offense.
We saw that happen over the tail end of last season. Mahomes didn’t throw for more than 300 yards in any of his last three games as defenses resolved not to be beaten through the air, and he needs to average more than 290 yards per game in order to go over the total.
Additionally, there is always the possibility that Mahomes sits out the last game of the season if the Chiefs are very good, which would likely lead to him finishing under the total. This is such a high number that missing just one game makes it improbable that he will finish over.
Only four quarterbacks threw for more than 4,650 yards last season, and as good as Mahomes is, you just can’t take the over here.
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