Last year, the Minnesota Vikings became the seventh team in NFL history to have two receivers finish the season with over 100 receptions and more than 1,000 yards. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen were two of the most productive receivers in the league, and they will look to become the first duo in NFL history to repeat that feat. Both players have receiving totals of 1,000 yards per the NFL prop betting odds this season, but the bettors have tended to favor the under on Diggs.
Stefon Diggs 2019 Receiving Yards
Over 1000.5 -105
Under 1000.5 -125
Odds Analysis
Diggs is entering his fifth season in the league. The former five-star prospect turned out to be the steal of the 2015 NFL Draft, as he has finished with 700 receiving yards or more in each of his previous four seasons. He had not crossed 1,000 yards until last season though, when he was targeted 149 times by Kirk Cousins.
Offensive Scheme
Minnesota was excited to finally have a quarterback last season, and the Vikings believed Kirk Cousins would make them a Super Bowl contender. That didn’t happen as the Vikings failed to make the playoffs, but the team was much more dangerous through the air.
In 2017, Minnesota was one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. The Vikings passed the ball on just over 54 percent of their plays, relying on their defense and the running game. That script was reversed last season as Minnesota threw the ball on a whopping 64.4 percent of its possessions.
Some of that was because the Vikings trusted Cousins more than former quarterback Case Keenum, and some of that was due to an ineffective ground game. Minnesota had one of the worst run-blocking offensive lines in the league last season, and neither Dalvin Cook or Latavius Murray could get going behind that line.
The Vikings made significant upgrades to their offensive line this offseason so that Cook can establish the run. Minnesota selected center Garrett Bradbury with its first-round pick, and Riley Reiff and Josh Kline were brought in as free agents. That should lead to Minnesota running the ball more this year.
Another draft pick could lead to Diggs seeing less looks in 2019 too. Minnesota took Irv Smith Jr. in the second-round of this year’s draft, and he should immediately team up with Kyle Rudolph to provide Cousins with one of the top tight end tandems in the league.
Injury Risk
There is a moderate injury risk to keep in mind with Diggs. He missed three games due to knee, hip, and groin issues in 2016, and the groin problems flared up to keep him out of two games in 2017. Diggs missed just one game due to an injury (bruised ribs) last year, but the nagging groin injuries are reason to worry.
The Play
The under is the better play on this prop. Mike Zimmer is a defensive-minded coach that probably realizes the team threw the ball way too much in 2018. Minnesota lost its identity and that led to a disappointing campaign, and he has taken steps to make sure it doesn’t happen again. The additions along the offensive line and at tight end fit Zimmer’s philosophy, and I’d be stunned if Diggs has north of 125 targets this year.
Diggs will primarily be used as a deep ball threat in 2019. With two solid tight ends and a great possession receiver in Adam Thielen, Diggs will be used as a way to stretch the field more than anything else. He has the speed to do that, but more often than not, he will be used as a decoy. He will certainly have some big plays, yet I don’t think it’s enough to push him over 1,000 yards.
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