NFL Player Props – TY Hilton Receiving Yards

By  Jonathan Willis

Thursday, August 22nd, 2019

NFL Player Props – TY Hilton Receiving Yards

A healthy Andrew Luck meant a return to form for TY Hilton last year. The Colts’ WR1 finished with under 1,000 yards for the first time since his rookie season in 2017, but he had a bounce-back campaign and eclipsed 1,200 yards for the fourth time in his career last season. As long as Luck remains healthy, Hilton stands to put up big numbers once again in 2019.

TY Hilton 2019 Receiving Yards

Over 1200.5 +100
Under 1200.5 -130

Odds Analysis

TY Hilton has been one of the best deep threats since entering the league, and he has caught at least one 60-yard pass every season. Hilton has averaged 16 yards per reception over the course of his career, and any fears that Luck’s shoulder surgery would lead to Hilton being less of a factor were erased after the wide receiver averaged over 10.6 yards per target in 2018.

Offensive Scheme

Indianapolis turned a lot of heads with a surprisingly good offense in the team’s first year under new head coach Frank Reich. The Colts were able to air it out well as Luck threw the most passes of his career, and the team was very good at prioritizing the underneath passing game. No other player with 10 or more receptions averaged more than 11.5 yards per reception, leaving Hilton as the lone deep option.

We should see a similar strategy from the Colts this season. Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle are both back as tight ends to throw to over the middle, and Nyheim Hines will be a consistent option in the flat. Chester Rogers is a solid slot receiver too.

The Colts might have a better option as the No. 2 receiver this year. Devin Funchess is the nominal starter currently, but the team has high hopes for second-round draft pick Parris Campbell. Campbell shined during his time at Ohio State, and he could become a nice complement to Hilton. That could be a double-edged sword though. While that would lead to Hilton facing fewer double teams, he could also see fewer targets if Campbell were to succeed.

One of the things that should work in Hilton’s favor though is an offensive line that will be even better in 2019. Quenton Nelson had a fantastic rookie season, and the left side of the line is very strong. That will keep Luck upright and healthy, which is extremely important considering his injury history and the team’s limited options behind him.

Injury Risk

Despite his small frame, Hilton has been one of the most durable receivers in the league during his seven-year career. He missed the first game of his rookie season with a shoulder injury, but he then appeared in 43 straight games before missing a game in 2014 with a pulled hamstring. Hilton appeared in every game from 2015 to 2017, but then he missed two games last season due to a strained hamstring.

The Play

Luck’s health is key to this bet. If he goes down with an injury, Hilton is not going to finish over his total. Jacoby Brissett doesn’t have the same arm talent, so Luck must stay on the field for all 16 games.

Of all the receiver totals on the board, this one feels most like a toss-up to me. Hilton has the explosiveness to finish with over 1,500 yards, but how many targets will he receive? He has only caught more than 83 passes in a season one time in his career, and it seems unlikely he’ll receive that many looks in 2019. I would lean towards the under when it comes to this number, but it’s only a lean and not a play.

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