Points are being scored at an all-time high in the NFL, no thanks to the Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals. But when the Cowboys can throw 40 on the Jacksonville defense, it’s time to take a good luck at the totals. Considering the amount of points being scored, we could throw down on the over and come out ahead. But the profit isn’t significant since the over is just 50-42 through the first six weeks of the season. There are teams that still play defense. After hitting on two of our three top total plays last week, we’re back to give it another go. Week 7 of the NFL regular season has some intriguing matchups and we’ll take a look at a few top total plays that will build your pocketbook.
Top Total Plays Of Week 7
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Over 40.5
This is one of those games that has us leaning toward the under, but the opening total is just too darn low. Granted, neither team has been a force offensively and the Cardinals are dead last in several categories. But their defense has scored a touchdown in each of the last two outings and there has been some improved play since Josh Rosen was inserted into the starting role. After another shaky outing in Minnesota last week, Steve Wilks hinted that some changes are coming. The most likely is the use of a no-huddle, which Rosen thrived at during his time at UCLA.
And facing the Broncos might be just what the Cards need to kickstart their offense. The Broncos have been gouged for 593 yards on the ground and 956 total yards over the last two games while giving up 57 points. Not the kind of numbers you expect an elite defense to give up. I guess the Broncos are no longer elite. We’ve seen Denver move the football but struggle to punch it in the end zone. If they can capitalize on a few more opportunities, the over is a given.
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Over 49
If you like points you have to like the Bucs. Not only does Tampa score a bunch, they give up the most in the NFL. Teams tend to have a spark after a coaching change and the Bucs fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith one day after surrendering 34 points in a loss to the Falcons. It was Tampa’s third straight loss and the fourth time in five games they allowed at least 30 points. There’s a chance the defense can find its way under new coordinator Mark Duffner, but the group is flawed and there is no quick fix.
The Browns are a scrappy bunch taking after their quarterback and they’ve had some injury issues at receiver. But teams tend to get better when playing the Bucs, especially on offense. It seems only fitting that the Bucs will get in another shootout since that’s the only way they know how to play. The transition from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Jameis Winston has been seamless and the Bucs are the best passing team in the NFL. Cleveland just got skewered by Philip Rivers and the Chargers, so expect a lot of balls in the air on both sides. The Bucs are 5-0 to the over this season and the opening total of 49 isn’t going to affect them this week.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Under 50
Taking the under in a Saints game is a losing bet, right? Not so fast. Sure, the Saints are a dynamic offensive team with weapons galore. And now that they have Mark Ingram back in the mix, they should be even better. But keep in mind that the Saints defense has been vastly improved over the last few weeks and they are coming off their bye, so they should at least be well rested to take on Joe Flacco and his bunch.
And the Saints are a different team away from the Superdome. Over their last 15 road games with a closing total of at least 50 points, the under is a whopping 10-5. And we are familiar with the Ravens and their defense. They pitched a shutout last week in Tennessee with the help of a team record 11 sacks. We knew Baltimore’s D was good, but it was out of this world last weekend. The Ravens rank first in fewest points and yards allowed, second in pass defense and third in rush defense. And they also lead the NFL with 26 sacks after their record-setting performance last Sunday.
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