It turns out we were right and so was the betting public on two of our fade plays from last week. Two games pushed the spread and we happened to pick them both, siding with the Lone Star state teams in last week’s matchups. Houston was a 2-point dog on the closing line against the defending champs and the Texans were that close to getting a road victory, only to lose 32-30 on field goal with no time left. Coming off a huge win over the Rams the week before and playing at home, Philadelphia was getting plenty of support from the public. We backed the Cowboys in their game with the Tampa Bay, despite the Bucs getting 7-points and plenty of play on the early line. So what happens? Of course, the Boys win 27-20. We backed Oakland on Monday night and the Raiders gave us a victory by winning outright as a 2.5-point pup.
Oddsmakers have yet to deliver spreads and totals on several games, not surprising giving the uncertainty surrounding many teams since being eliminated playoff contention. The biggest game of the week takes place in Nashville with a win-and-in matchup between the Titans and Colts. The status of Marcus Mariota has kept the spread off the board. The Steelers and Rams both got pounded by the public on the early betting lines while the Bears have received three-quarters of the action as a 5-point dog for their tilt NFC North tilt with the Vikings.
Let’s take a look at a few of our Week 17 fade the public play picks of the week.
Chicago Bears ( +5 ) at Minnesota Vikings
Don’t get me wrong, I like the Bears and wish them the best in the upcoming playoffs. And they still have an outside chance of securing a No. 2 seed in the NFC if things fall their way on Sunday, so expect them to bring their best against the Vikings. But this is a contest the Vikings absolutely need to win since they control their own playoff destiny. And it’s not like the Bears have been destroying teams lately. They scored just 14 points to knock off the Niners last week and they have hit a wall offensively.
Another thing to point out here is that the Bears need the Rams to lose. The odds certainly are not in Chicago’s favor after the Rams annihilated Frisco, 39-10, earlier in the year. It might behoove Matt Nagy to rest some banged up players and show the Vikings nothing since this could be a wild card matchup. Still, Chicago is getting plenty of action on the early betting lines with 76 percent of the wagers taking the visitors and 5-points. I’ll go the other way with the Vikings at home needing to win.
Philadelphia Eagles ( -6.5 ) at Washington Redskins
Speaking of the Eagles, it’s hard not to notice the magical spell Nick Foles has over this team. We all know what happened last season with their improbable run to the Super Bowl title behind their backup and Foles is at it again, keeping the defending champs alive with wins over the Rams and Texans. The betting public is feeling the magic as well with over 80 percent of the action through the middle of the week backing Philly.
It’s not just their recent play that has folks confident in the Eagles. They get a beaten down Redskins team that is working on a fourth quarterback and just released one of their better players after he publicly criticized his defensive coordinator. That tells me a lot about Jay Gruden and the Skins. Mainly that they aren’t giving up on the season despite the obstacles, and that will be a wakeup call to the rest of the guys. It’s hard to say this, but I’m not convinced that Foles has a special gift. I’ll take the Skins and 6.5-points to back that up.
Baltimore Ravens ( -6 ) vs. Cleveland Browns
We’ve watched all of the quarterbacks taken in the first round of this year’s draft make an impact. But the unlikeliest is Lamar Jackson, who was the last player taken in the opening round and wasn’t projected to start while backing up Joe Flacco. How the fortunes have changed for Jackson, who is a win away from leading the Ravens back to the postseason. All Jackson has done since taking over is win five of six starts, moving the Ravens ahead of the slumping Steelers into first place in the AFC North. A win on Sunday gets that done and 60 percent of the early bettors like his chances against the Browns.
Not so fast, though. Cleveland has a chance to secure its first winning season 2007 and you can bet No. 1 pick Baker Mayfield will do everything in his power to make that happen. The Browns have been a different team since making a coaching change to Gregg Williams and Mayfield has thrived. They’ve won five of their last six games and the Browns have a win over Baltimore earlier in the year when Hue Jackson was still calling the shots. And the Browns don’t have that road losing streak hanging over them after beating Cincinnati last month and taking two of their last three away from the Dawg Pound.
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