With the 2022 NFL Draft now in the rearview mirror, I thought it would be a good time to see how the betting markets reacted to what all 30 front offices did through the weekend. To do that, I took a look at what the odds to win Super Bowl LVII were at online sportsbooks heading into the draft and compared them to what they looked like early Monday morning. Save for the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys who each saw their rates of return fatten up a bit, there wasn’t much line movement to speak of when only examining the perceived favorites entering the 2022-23 NFL betting season. There was however some notable differences at the middle and back end of the list. Let’s put some of the bigger line moves under the microscope and see if they were warranted or if they’ve created some line value to take advantage of.
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Buffalo Bills +651
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +766
Kansas City Chiefs +911
Los Angeles Rams +921
Green Bay Packers +1001
Los Angeles Chargers +1339
San Francisco 49ers +1803
Denver Broncos +1824
Dallas Cowboys +1929
Cincinnati Bengals +1979
Indianapolis Colts +2355
Baltimore Ravens +2406
Cleveland Browns +2506
Tennessee Titans +2808
Arizona Cardinals +3000
Miami Dolphins +3064
Las Vegas Raiders +3692
Philadelphia Eagles +3814
New England Patriots +4000
Minnesota Vikings +4007
New Orleans Saints +5700
Washington Commanders +7500
Seattle Seahawks +9500
Pittsburgh Steelers +10000
Chicago Bears/New York Giants +12500
New York Jets +13500
Jacksonville Jaguars +15000
Carolina Panthers/Detroit Lions +17500
Atlanta Falcons +25000
Houston Texans +35000
Baltimore Ravens +2661 » +2406 ( -$255 )
Personally, I’m shocked the Ravens odds of winning it all didn’t see an even bigger drop in line value the way all the talking heads were gushing over the job GM Eric DeCosta and Co. did. Baltimore’s top needs came at LB, in the secondary, and on the offensive line. They added Kyle Hamilton with the No. 14 pick and snagged their center of the future by trading back into the first round to select Iowa’s Tyler Linderbaum. If that wasn’t enough, they got major value with their lone second round pick in LB David Ojabo. Doesn’t the name Daniel Faalele just sound like he should be a Baltimore Raven? Well he is now after getting scooped up in the fourth. Though the Ravens are lacking at the wide receiver position, you can’t say that about tight end with ISU’s Charlie Kolar and Coastal Carolina’s Isaiah Likely now also in the mix. It was yet another fantastic draft for this franchise, but the team still needs wide receiver help. That’ll likely be addressed in the coming months.
Tennessee Titans +2641 » +2808 ( +$167 )
So I’m thinking the trade that sent A.J. Brown to Philadelphia had much more to do with the Titz odds getting longer than the result of the draft since I actually like what Tennessee did! The team needed help along the offensive line, wide receiver and in the secondary. Arkansas’ Treylon Burks was added to the mix, and then Auburn’s Roger McCreary was added in the second round to help shore up what was the No. 25 ranked pass defense. The O-Line now has a good one in Ohio State’s Nicholas Petit-Frere to go along with potentially the QB of the franchise’s future in Malik Willis who fell all the way to round three. While the omission of Brown will hurt, the Titans will still be the Titans so long as they continue pounding the rock and stuffing the run. There’s value to be had with this line move!
Philadelphia Eagles +4000 » +3814 ( -$186 )
Howie Roseman had the City of Brotherly Love praising him after making the bold move to add a stud pass catcher to the offensive huddle by making that blockbuster trade with Tennessee. On top of needing wide receiver help considering Jalen Hurts navigated the league’s No. 25 ranked passing attack, it also needed help along the defensive line and secondary. Though no secondary help was brought in, the front-seven got a major influx of talent with Georgia’s Jordan Davis brought in to supplant the aging Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave. The LB corps was also upgraded with the additions of UGA’s Nakobe Dean and KU’s Kyron Johnson. If Brown is all Hurts needed to get the passing game going, Philly is going to be tough to take down moving forward with it already boasting the league’s best overall rushing attack!
New Orleans Saints +5000 » +5700 ( +$700 )
Though the Saints took care of two major needs with their two first round picks in WR Chris Olave and OT Trevor Penning, New Orleans actually saw its odds of winning Super Bowl 57 noticeably bloat up. That likely has much to do with the front office passing on adding a quarterback and instead putting all their eggs in the Jameis Winston basket. It looks pretty bleak behind him with Andy Dalton and Ian Book also in the mix. With the defense longer in the tooth and the offense coming off a horrific campaign, I’m not sure this team has enough at hand to compete for the NFC South title let alone win the Super Bowl – SELL!
Washington Commanders +6500 » +7500 ( +$1000 )
The Commanders two main needs entering the draft came at wide receiver and cornerback. The first round selection of Penn State’s Jahan Dotson took care of one right off the bat, but the other wasn’t taken off the list until pick No. 19 of the seventh round. Percy Butler was also a fine addition to the special teams in the fourth round. Maybe Sam Howell turns into the QB of the future. Then again, maybe not. Hopefully Dotson turns into the complimentary pass catcher Terry McLaurin needs to take it to the next level. The betting market isn’t betting on it!
Seattle Seahawks +8000 » +9500 ( +$1500 )
Save for the first round pick of Charles Cross at No. 9, I haven’t a clue what the Seahawks were thinking with their other eight picks. Seven rounds of NFL Draft betting and the roster is still without a replacement for Russell Wilson. Are we to seriously believe Pete Carroll will be going to war with the battery of Drew Lock, Geno Smith, or Jacob Eason? On top of that, Rashaad Penny showed that he could be the team’s most explosive ball carrier when given the reps last year. Even so, Carroll goes out and selects MSU’s Kenneth Walker III in the second round. I get that Penny is injury prone, but come on man!
Jacksonville Jaguars +13500 » +15000 ( +$1500 )
It was all about improving the Jags No. 28 scoring defense that ranked dead last at forcing turnovers in the 2022 NFL Draft. Five of their seven overall selections came on that side of the ball with the additions of Travon Walker with the No. 1 overall pick and Devin Lloyd in the second being the headliners. Chad Muma was also a nice pick in the third to help solidify a linebacker corps that will now be without the services of Myles Jack. With the front office already improving the offensive line and wide receiver position in the offseason, not much attention was paid to those needs save for adding Kentucky C Luke Fortner. Even so, there’s a nice mix that was brought into Duval County. Take a stab if you believe in miracles; as well as Doug Pederson!
Carolina Panthers +14000 » +17500 ( +$3500 )
With the Panthers odds of winning the Super Bowl fattening up after the conclusion of the draft, you can’t help but think Matt Rhule will find himself situated atop the first coach fired odds when released. Though ultra needs at QB and OL were taken care of with the selections of Ickey Ekwonu in the first round and Matt Corral in the third, linemakers don’t seem the least bit bullish on this franchise at this point in time. With the win total clocking in at six and it figured to finish third in a division likely to be dominated by the Bucs, it’s best to take a wait and see approach with this squad right now.
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