Going against the public on three games last week netted us two wins and a push, so it was a nice week at the betting window. Researching trends and injury reports, and going on instinct are sometimes more valuable than following the masses. The Bears hadn’t beaten a team with a winning record and there were many non-believers for their Sunday night affair with the Vikings. This isn’t John Fox’s Bears and they played a vicious game covering the 3-point line to get us a win. We bought the Jags at +6 before the line was wagered down and they came through on the line, losing 20-16.
Feeling confident in our wins from last week, we’ll examine some Week 12 matchups to determine where money can be won when going against the public on the early NFL betting lines at BookMaker.eu. The Cowboys have won two straight and the Redskins are without starting quarterback Alex Smith, so the Boys are getting backed by 55 percent of the early play for the Turkey Day showdown. After the Saints dismantled the Eagles last week as a 7-point favorite, New Orleans opened as 12-point chalk with support of 90 percent of the public for Thursday night’s game with Atlanta.
Let’s take a look at a few of our Week 12 fade the public play picks of the week.
Dallas Cowboys ( -7 ) vs. Washington Redskins
It’s easy to get down on a team when the starting quarterback sustains a season-ending injury. Just look at what happened to San Francisco when Jimmy Garoppolo went down. The Skins have been hit hard again this year with the injury bug, but in past seasons they were able to keep their QB upright. Not this time. Alex Smith was lost for the season with a gruesome broken leg, and even though the Skins lead the NFC East, their advantage is tedious at best. I’m not a believer in the Skins and neither are 55 percent of the early betting public, who are backing the Cowboys instead.
Dallas has won two in a row and Ezekiel Elliott is running wild. The Boys are also injury-free at the skill positions, which is a major reason why they opened at -9. The line was wagered down a few points as the Skins got some buy back. And given the situation, Jay Gruden couldn’t have asked for anything better. Colt McCoy is a solid backup and we saw in this division last season that all is not lost when the starter goes down. Does the name Nick Foles ring a bell? The Cowboys aren’t going to score a lot of points so I’m taking the touchdown and the Skins in this one.
Buffalo Bills ( +3 ) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
How far have the Jags fallen? A sexy Super Bowl pick at the beginning of the season, they are just 1-game ahead of the Raiders for the basement in the AFC after losing their sixth straight game, and tied with Buffalo and the Jets. Confidence in the defending South champs has completely disappeared with the Bills getting nearly 60 percent of support on the early line from the betting public.
And coming off their bye, the Bills could have Josh Allen back behind center after he missed several games with an elbow injury. It would be hard to steer away from Matt Barkley, who started the last time out when the Bills scored 41 points in a win over the Jets. They scored just 96 points in the first nine weeks of the season. That game was more of an outlier and the Bills showed who they are during the first half of the season. The Jags might be done, but they aren’t going to lose to Buffalo when perception means everything. I’m taking the Jags minus the points despite what the majority of people are saying early in the week.
Seattle Seahawks ( +3 ) at Carolina Panthers
How fickle the NFL fans are. Two weeks ago the Panthers were being touted as a threat to the Saints and Rams in the NFC. Now they can’t even get 10 percent of the public to back them on the early line for a home game against Seattle. Two losses in a row will do that. Losing to Pittsburgh on the road wasn’t terrible. Losing by 31 points was. Then there was that defeat in Detroit last week against a struggling Lions team. If Cam Newton completes the 2-point conversion pass, the entire narrative is changed. He didn’t, and Carolina is scrambling with a number of other teams for playoff positioning.
One of those teams is Seattle, which makes this game even more important. The Seahawks got back in the picture with a win over Green Bay last Thursday, finally coming out on top in a close game after a number of near misses. Maybe their fortunes are flipping. I don’t think so. The Panthers are undefeated at home this season and Seattle just isn’t the same on the road. I’m taking the Panthers -3 against the advice of 90 percent of the betting public.
NFL Betting Odds
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
