With the game evolving in favor of the offense over the years and the forward pass the norm instead of the exception, we’ve seen scores increase around the league. And oddsmakers have had to adjust in order to keep up. Preseason results are a sign that we could see even more points on the board during the 2022 NFL regular season. The Dallas Cowboys led the NFL averaging 31.2 points last season but cashed the OVER in less than half their games.
We will get a clearer picture a few games into the season but for now four games on the Week 1 slate currently have a total over 50 points. And those games involve some of the usual suspects. The tilt between Kansas City and Arizona tops the board with a total of 53.5 points. The Bills at Rams Thursday night contest and the Raiders at Chargers game are at 52 points. The Sunday night game between Tampa and Dallas is at 51 points. One thing they all have in common: each team has a stud quarterback.
The Bears have been offensively challenged for a few years and the total of 40.5 for their matchup with San Francisco is the lowest on the NFL betting board. With Justin Fields looking for a breakout year under new coach Matt Eberflus, backing the OVER could be a winner. Let’s take a look at some total plays in Week 1 that can help put coin in your pocket.
NFL Week 1 Betting Lines
Top Total Plays Of Week 1
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Pick: OVER 40.5
I kinda gave this away in the opener, but I’m backing the OVER in this matchup. The total is the lowest on the board for a few reasons. First, the Niners have turned over the reins to Trey Lance. While he gives the club an added dimension it didn’t have under Jimmy Garoppolo, Lance is still learning the ropes at this level. He’s played well in his few appearances directing an offense built around Jimmy G’s skill set. Now that he’s the starter the game-plan will have a few wrinkles.
Meanwhile, Bears and high-scoring have rarely been used in the same sentence. But Fields got better as last season progressed and he was great in his brief preseason snaps creating optimism that maybe things can change. When the teams met last season the Niners emerged with a 33-22 Week 8 victory, eclipsing the closing total of ... wait for it ... 40.5. Two QBs with a lot of upside make this an OVER pick.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Pick: UNDER 51
Last year’s game was the exception to recent history between the clubs. They cashed the OVER for the first time in seven meetings in Tampa’s 31-29 victory. Everybody loves offense and points, which is why guys like Tom Brady get their mugs on Wheaties boxes while Leighton Vander Esch is just a name on the depth chart. A few things about this game concern me and have me leaning toward the UNDER. Both teams are dealing with losses on offense that will impact the point total.
The Bucs are trying to figure out their line with several starters banged up and center Ryan Jensen out. And Brady is 45, though he still looks and feels like a guy half his age. The real kicker is his personal life with Giselle apparently upset over the decision of her hubby to unretire. And Dak Prescott doesn’t have Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup to throw to lessening the effect of the Cowboys’ passing game.
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
Pick: UNDER 48.5
I thought the total was a bit high for this game and would have bet the UNDER even if it was a few points lower. I’m not convinced Jalen Hurts can lead a consistent successful offense and we saw him bale out of the pocket early too many times last season. He may be better, but old habits are hard to break. And if Detroit’s new-look defense does what’s expected it could be a long day for the Eagles’ offense.
Meanwhile, the Lions will rely on their D since Jared Goff hasn’t really distinguished himself behind center. He’s starting because he’s a former No. 1 overall pick and the club traded fan-favorite Matthew Stafford for him. Goff has had moments, he is a Super Bowl QB after all, but he lacks serious weapons and has proven he can’t do it by himself. And we’ve seen the total go UNDER in 10 of Detroit’s past 15 games.
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