If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. I refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. We are coming off a successful 2019 season, as the ugly dogs went 35-25-2. Anytime you can get near a winning percentage of 60% it is definitely a success. Week 1 is always tricky and that could be the case again this season, as we really don’t know how these teams will perform. Let’s take a look at the Week 1 Ugly Dog picks.
Week 1 Ugly Dog Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars +8 vs. Indianapolis Colts
It is probably best to get used to the Jaguars being a regular in this column each week. Jacksonville was a bad team last year and they look even worse entering this season. They got rid of most of their top players and some people have even suggested they are going to be tanking this season. If we are going to get wins on Jacksonville this season it will probably be with some late backdoor covers. It could happen in the opener, as the Colts are completely overvalued. It seems everyone is in love with the Colts now that they have Philip Rivers. All I can say is that I remember time and time again when Rivers threw away games while with the Chargers. Maybe the Jaguars can pick off a couple passes and keep this one close. We’ll take the Jaguars as an ugly dog.
Miami Dolphins +6.5 at New England Patriots
I am not sure the Dolphins are going to be as bad as some people think, as Miami played really well down the stretch a year ago with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center and he begins this season as the starter. When was the last time you saw the Patriots laying less than a TD at home to the Dolphins? New England won’t have Tom Brady under center, as Brady is in Tampa, so for now they have turned the job over to Cam Newton. It remains to be seen whether Newton can handle the bright lights in New England and whether he can be a team player. It also is questionable whether he is capable of leading this team. The Patriots playing at home will get a lot of love from bettors, but this is no longer the Patriots we remember; this is a much different version. We’ll take the Dolphins as an ugly dog in Week 1.
Washington Redskins +6 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Another regular in this column this season is likely to be the Washington Redskins. The Redskins and Jaguars are likely going to be the two worst teams in the league this season. I am a little surprised the line on this one is not higher in favor of the Eagles. There is very little to like about the Redskins other than their top draft pick Chase Young. The Redskins look very poor on offense and while the defense will be improved, it is still not any good. This one is ugly, but that is the point of these picks. We’ll take the Redskins as an ugly dog.
New York Giants +5.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Early in the season we really don’t know which teams will be good and which will be bad, as we are just making assumptions. We think that the Giants are going to be bad, but they shouldn’t be any worse than they were a year ago. They could actually be improved because Pat Shurmur is finally gone. The Giants at least have some talent on offense, so they should be able to score. We’ll take New York as an ugly dog in Week 1.
Check out the latest Week 1 NFL odds at BookMaker Sportsbook!
