When playing a parlay it’s all or nothing; coming close doesn’t count. And we went another week hitting on a few picks while not hitting on others proving once again just how difficult it is to bet on the NFL. How do you make sense of a league where double digit dogs win outright seemingly every week? Yep, it happened again in Week 9 with the Jets stunning Buffalo 20-17 while catching 10.5 points on the closing line. As we move ahead keep in mind this article is for information purposes only looking at specific games that can be included in a winning parlay card.
Playing a favorite on your parlay card should be the easy part. Well, that hasn’t been the case this season and it certainly wasn’t last week. Four dogs won outright with the Jets pulling off the biggest stunner. Four doesn’t sound like a lot but consider there were fewer games played with six teams taking a bye. And of course I was one of the many backing Buffalo -12.5 in its game with the Jets figuring the New Yorkers would finally settle down. I guess we can say now the Jets are a few steps ahead of previous seasons. It wasn’t a total loss, though, since I did back the Vikings as a fairly cheap moneyline favorite in their 20-17 win over Washington.
Turns out there were four games that had the same final score of 20-17 and I had three of them among last week’s parlay picks. I felt confident the Titans would stay within the 12.5-point spread and they did nearly pulling off the upset before falling in overtime to Kansas City. That was the third 20-17 game of last week’s picks. The upsets are out there we just have to identify them. I backed Carolina on the moneyline and that was a disaster since they got whacked by Cincinnati. Along with the Jets, Detroit, Jacksonville and Seattle were dogs cleaning up on the moneyline. Let’s peek ahead to Week 10 of the NFL schedule for winners on a parlay card.
NFL Week 10 Betting Lines
Parlay Card Favorites
Picking favorites isn’t nearly as easy as it seems. Upsets happen every week and sometimes there are more than you’d expect. Teams laying points won nine of 13 games outright in Week 9 but the favorites weren’t so lucky against the spread going just 4-9. A good strategy is to back the bigger favorites to get some wins, but even that isn’t a guarantee. For the second time in three weeks a double-digit favorite was upset. In Week 7 the Panthers stunned Tampa Bay as a 13-point dog and last week the Jets won as an 11-point dog.
I think it’s going to take more than an off week for the Broncos to solve their problems and with the Titans playing strong football and getting Ryan Tannehill back they look like a good pick as a 2-point home favorite. Tennessee saw its five-game winning streak snapped in KC last week with only a Herculean effort by Patrick Mahomes denying the Titans six in a row. I’m backing the home team against a line that looks a little thin.
Following their disastrous loss to the Jets and the potential loss of Josh Allen, I’m still banking on the Bills to bounce back this week against Minnesota. They are a slight -187 on the moneyline, which could go up if Allen plays. He’s listed as day-to-day with an elbow injury. The Bills brought in Case Keenum “for a reason” and the Bills are more than just Allen with a chance to prove that on Sunday.
Parlay Card Underdog Winners
Everybody loves an underdog so it’s hard not to talk about them. And we see dogs prevail every week in the NFL giving us plenty of chances to increase the payout on a parlay card. Four dogs won outright in Week 9 with the J-E-T-S at +10.5 the biggest of the group. We’ve seen several double-digit dogs win outright already this and as of this writing there’s only once chance of that happening in Week 10. The team formerly known as the Redskins is catching 11 points in the Monday night tilt with unbeaten Philadelphia.
The Commanders played well defensively during a recent three-game winning streak and could very easily have a five-game streak going. They simply haven’t done enough to consistently put points on the board on that’s not going to change on Monday. But I do like the 11 points they’re getting.
My outright upset pick of the week comes with the Indianapolis Colts at +215 in their matchup with Las Vegas. A coaching change always provides a spark and that’s what Indy needs under interim Jeff Saturday. An odd choice to succeed Frank Reich, Saturday is a Colts legend and a no-nonsense guy who will get the most out of his players. And they will find a way against a Raiders group that’s experienced at giving games away.
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