After a stubbed toe in my Week 8 NFL top total plays I got back in the black hitting two of three last week. Over the last four weeks of NFL action I hit on exactly two-thirds of my total plays overcoming a slow start. From Weeks 6-8 the OVER was the dominant outcome with 56 percent of the games ending above the closing the total. In Week 9, though, we were back to seeing a majority of games cash the UNDER with eight of the 13 contests going below the total. For the season the UNDER has cashed nearly 55 percent of the time.
Two gifted quarterbacks and a Chicago defense minus two of its best players after recent trades had me backing the OVER in the Dolphins-Bears matchup. And just as expected the clubs came through combining for 67 points easily going above the total of 45. Of course I had to back the UNDER in Indy’s game against New England. The Colts are almost as inept as Denver on offense managing just a field goal in the 26-3 defeat handing me another win against the UNDER.
Two touchdowns late in the fourth quarter of the Seattle-Arizona game cost me a win and a sweep while getting the seat of Kliff Kingsbury even hotter. Arizona got within 24-21 on a Kyler Murray scoring pass with 3:32 left only to have the Seahawks answer with a Kenneth Walker touchdown for the 31-21 win going over the total of 50. On its final TD possession Seattle drove 80 yards to paydirt in under two minutes when the Cards needed a stop for a chance to at least tie the game with a field goal. Sometimes the difference between winning and losing is so slim. I’ll move ahead to Week 10 of the NFL schedule looking to stay on the plus side in my top total plays.
NFL Week 10 Betting Lines
Top Total Plays of Week 10
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: UNDER 50.5
They lead the NFL in scoring but the Chiefs average only 24.3 points at home with the UNDER 3-1 in those games. That sets the stage for another slugfest against the rejuvenated Jaguars. Since the team dealt James Robinson giving the load to Travis Etienne the ground game has clicked. Etienne has rushed for more than 100 yards in three straight games and that’s key to keeping the ball out Patrick Mahomes’ hands.
While Mahomes threw for more than 400 yards last week against the Titans, the Chiefs managed just 20 points eking out a 20-17 overtime win. And while they continue to win games at Arrowhead they haven’t been dominant. They scored 20 points in each of their last two home games and Mahomes misses the downfield threat he had in Tyreek Hill. The Jags stood up to Vegas pitching a second half shutout and they are an underrated group looking to rise up.
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans
Pick: UNDER 37
Do I dare dip my toes in this well again? Until the Broncos prove me wrong I’ll take the UNDER in their games or if the total gets too low. It’s inching that way but still good enough for me to say they won’t make it. The bye gave them time to recalibrate but it’s hard to fix an offensive line that has trouble blocking. Thanks to a defense that’s first against the pass and second in total defense and scoring defense, Denver will play a lot of low-scoring affairs.
After watching the Titans last week I feel more comfortable back the UNDER. With Ryan Tannehill still out we saw a lot of Derrick Henry chewing up yards and clock. And they did enough defensively against a much stronger KC team to nearly pull off the upset. At home against a team that struggles to score we’ll see more of the same, including an UNDER winner.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Pick: OVER 48.5
The Bears haven’t played against a total this high all season making me reluctant to back the OVER. But given their recent play on offense and the Superman impersonation by Justin Fields I will back the OVER. Fields threw three TD passes and ran for 178 yards in Chicago’s 35-32 loss last week giving us a glimpse of what to expect moving forward. At one point earlier in the season the Lions boasted the highest scoring team in the NFL. They’ve regressed a little but still average nearly 25 points.
Both teams are challenged defensively with the Bears allowing 84 points in their last two games. Trading away two of their top defensive players has a lot to do with that and I expect the Lions will exploit that deficiency in what should be a high scoring contest.
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