If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. We went a perfect 4-0 with the picks in Week 9 and that takes the season record to 22-19-1. We have four plays to look at for this week. Let’s take a look at the Week 10 Ugly Dog picks.
Week 10 Ugly Dog Picks
Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bengals have just two wins on the season, but there is no question they have been more competitive with Joe Burrow running the offense. The Steelers are still unbeaten but they looked mortal last week in an ugly win against Dallas. The question this week is whether or not quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will play. Oddsmakers are not sure, so the odds have dropped a bit, as this line has gone down from 9.5 to 7.5. The chances of Roethlisberger getting out of the COVID-19 “quarantine” is high, and I expect him to play. This is not a good spot for Cincinnati, as the Steelers had their “letdown” last week against Dallas and you have to think that Pittsburgh will be more focused this week. We’ll take the Bengals as an ugly dog.
Jacksonville Jaguars +13.5 at Green Bay Packers
The Jaguars are a bad team going nowhere and they are battling with the Jets for the worst record in the league. We did get a backdoor cover with the Jaguars last week, but Jacksonville doesn’t figure to be competitive on Sunday against the Packers. Green Bay is one of the top teams in the NFL and they should roll over a rotten Jacksonville team. I am actually surprised this line isn’t higher. The only way that the Jaguars are competitive is if the Packers look ahead to next week’s game at the Colts. And it still may not matter, as Jacksonville is a bad team with no incentive to win. This one is ugly, but that is the point, so we take the Jaguars plus the points.
San Francisco 49ers +9 at New Orleans Saints
The 49ers are decimated by injuries and they look nothing like the team they were a year ago. They have done well just to win a few games this season. They have tried to remain competitive, but it is really hard when more than half of your best players are hurt. The only chance that the 49ers have in this one is if the Saints have a letdown after their win against Tampa Bay. Nick Mullens is capable of making some plays, so perhaps he can keep the 49ers in this game for a while, but unless the San Francisco defense forces some turnovers this game looks like a rout. I can see this line going higher, as there are not going to be many people who want to back San Francisco. We’ll do it though, and take the 49ers as an ugly dog.
New England Patriots +7 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Did you ever think you would see the Patriots listed as an ugly dog? The Patriots got a win last week against the Jets, but that game showed just how bad New England is. The Patriots were fortunate to beat the winless Jets and now New England has to face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Can you see any way that New England is competitive in this game? The Ravens should be able to score almost at will against a weak New England defense and Cam Newton doesn’t figure to make enough plays for this game to be close. This one is actually really ugly, as we take the Patriots plus the points on Sunday Night Football.
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