As chaotic as the college football slate of games has been on the spread in the early part of the betting week, Week 11 of the NFL regular season has been rather tame. That’s due to a number of factors, one being the oddsmakers hitting the lines the public likes. And another is that the public isn’t putting down as much after the house had a good last week.
The most significant line move so far has come in a game no one outside of Arizona and maybe Oakland even cares about. The opening line saw the Cards at -3 but quickly spiked to -5.5 with 84 percent of the public, including Mark Davis, backing the home team. No other game has seen more than a 1-point shift with the AFC North matchup between Baltimore and Cincinnati off the board due to concerns over the playing status of Joe Flacco.
Let’s take a more in depth look at a few Week 11 games that have seen some shifting in the line since the numbers hit the board.
Week 11 Major Line Moves
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals
Opening Line: Cardinals -3
Current Line: Cardinals -5.5
The Cardinals haven’t been the favorite on a closing line since the season opener, and if you can remember back that far, it didn’t go well. Then again, not much has gone right for the Cards this season with their only two wins coming against the equally inept San Francisco 49ers. But compared to the Raiders, Arizona looks like the classiest team in the league. The line move in this game has everything to do with how bad the Raiders are and nothing to do with the Cardinals, except for maybe them being the home team.
One play in last week’s game pretty much sums up Oakland’s season. Derek Carr tossed the ball into the turf when a screen pass was diagnosed perfectly by the Chargers defense. Normally that’s a smart play. However, it was late in the fourth quarter with the Raiders down by two touchdowns. And it was fourth down. Oakland’s offense has spiraled into oblivion the last two games, scoring a total of nine points while failing to reach the end zone.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Opening Line: Bears -3
Current Line: Bears -2.5
It’s customary at most books to add juice to a line to keep it from moving off a key number. That wasn’t the case in this matchup with the Bears going from a 3-point favorite when the odds first surfaced to a current 2.5-point chalk. Chicago is having a strong season thanks to the development of Mitchell Trubisky, and the acquisition of former DPOY Khalil Mack has transformed the defense from good to great. Many felt the Bears were a candidate for a breakout season under Matt Nagy and they’ve become serious contenders past the halfway point.
Despite all they’ve accomplished, the Bears still have some doubters. And why not, all six of their wins have been against teams that currently have a losing record and they are in a spot that’s unfamiliar. That’s not the case for the Vikings, who are looking to get back to and beyond the NFC Championship game. The betting public likes what the Vikings have done defensively lately and they are backing the visitors with over 70 percent of the action.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams
Opening Line: Rams -2.5
Current Line: Rams -3
We might be watching a preview of the Super Bowl when these teams get together on Monday Night Football. The best teams in their conference each with a record of 9-1, they are also the second- and third-highest scoring teams in the NFL behind New Orleans, prompting a record-high opening total of 64. The game was to be played in Mexico City, but poor field conditions forced the league to switch the game to the L.A. Coliseum, giving the Rams a true home field advantage.
When the line first hit the board with the game still set to go south of the border, the Rams were -2. That ticket was cancelled once the move was announced and the line reopened with LA a 3-point favorite. Sharps are hitting the Rams now that they have the game in their backyard, but the squares are falling in line with the Chiefs, who are 8-2 against the line this season, including a 3-0 ATS ledger in games they played as the underdog.
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