Playing a parlay can be fun; winning a parlay is tough. I had a good last week on my picks hitting on three of four games, including both underdogs, but as we all know it takes every pick winning to cash the ticket. So I guess it’s a good thing my NFL parlay picks article is designed for informational purposes only. In the end it’s up to you the bettor to decide if the games I cover are worth the investment. Last week they were with my dogs barking. So just for the heck of it I’m going to play a four-team parlay with my picks and see how I do.
Backing a favorite should be the easy part, but as we find out every week in the NFL there is no sure thing. The Week 10 results were split evenly with dogs winning seven games outright. And for the second straight and the third time in four weeks a double digit dog won outright. Catching 11 points on the closing line, Washington ended Philly’s perfect run with a 32-21 victory. In Week 9 the Jets were also an 11-point dog upsetting Buffalo.
I didn’t back the Eagles but one of the upsets last week upset my parlay card. With Josh Allen a game-time decision I still backed the Bills on the moneyline against Minnesota. Things looked good early but an epic second half saw the Vikings rally from a 17-point deficit to take the lead only to have Buffalo hit a tying field goal with seconds remaining. The Vikings eventually won in overtime. Tennessee got me a win covering the 2-point line in a 17-10 win over Denver.
The real fun came with my underdog picks. Hitting the right team on the moneyline will do wonders for your payout. Two weeks ago the Jets were around +500 and last week the Commanders were in the +400 range. Unfortunately I didn’t back either of those teams instead going with Indy at +281 in their win over Las Vegas. I did back the team formerly known as the Redskins against the spread and didn’t need the 11-points. Now let’s look ahead to Week 11 of the NFL schedule for winners on a parlay card.
NFL Week 11
NFL Week 11 Betting Lines
Parlay Card Favorites
Tread cautiously when backing favorites since the teams expected to win have had a tough time. The 14-game Week 10 slate was split right down the middle with only seven faves coming out on top. And surprisingly it was the biggest favorites of the week that lost. Buffalo lost on Sunday and Washington upset Philadelphia on Monday Night Football. So, who do I like in Week 11?
The biggest line on the Week 11 board has Baltimore favored by 12.5 points against Carolina. Having won three in a row with the help of an improving defense, the Ravens have rejoined the discussion in the AFC. They also had an extra week of prep work enjoying their bye in Week 10. And they’ve traditionally been good in that first game back going 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS over the last 20 seasons. And oh yeah, they have Lamar Jackson. The Panthers have played better since firing Matt Rhule, but they are still the Panthers with plenty of holes on defense. It’s a steep price on the moneyline so instead I’ll back Ravens to cover the spread.
If you looked hard enough you could see Washington was poised for the upset last week. They won four of their last five thanks to a stout defense that likely gets better with Chase Young returning. And the Texans have a tough time scoring giving me plenty of confidence to back the Commanders on the moneyline.
Parlay Card Underdog Winners
Outright dogs on the moneyline can blow up a parlay card in one of two ways. We don’t want the first option which has the team losing putting an end to any hopes of cashing out a ticket. But nailing the pick can boost the payout so it makes sense to dial in on one or more dogs. Let’s identify some underdogs with a chance to boost our performance.
The Chargers have played the Chiefs close in a lot of games over the years and came away with a few wins. With their season teetering on the brink this is as close to a must win as you can get. The Bolts are coming off a tough loss at Frisco when they scored just 16 points. They need to get Austin Ekeler more involved and I suspect they will. This is a risky moneyline pick with the +237 Bolts banged up, but they will rise to the occasion.
One of their wins was over Denver in Week 4, but losing three in a row and four of five since then has positioned the Raiders as a slight 2.5-point dog. Both clubs have underachieved and I can’t trust either of them. I just trust the Broncos less and look for the Raiders to put things together for a complete game. And there’s nothing like a rivalry contest to get the juices flowing.
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