Buying points to move the line or total in your favor is designed to make betting easier. I don’t think it’s supposed to be this easy, though. I became a fan of teasers after hitting a few three-team winners. I’m a huge fan now after sweeping games last week to continue the heater that’s seen me hit three-team teasers in six of the last seven weeks. Buying points does come at a cost thus reducing the payout on a winning ticket. And it takes more wins to cover the losses when you don’t succeed. I guess the only way around that is not to lose, and I’ve rarely done that this season. I’m not getting too overconfident since wagering is a humbling activity, but I’ll enjoy it while I can and hopefully continue the run.
I would have been better off playing a parlay last week since my picks all won without teasing the line. Oh well, I don’t have a crystal ball and I can’t get too greedy. We typically see teams play with more intensity when a coaching change is made during the season. And the Colts weren’t a terrible team to begin with, so backing them at +12 on the teased line against the underachieving Raiders was a comfortable play. And the 25-20 win gave new coach Jeff Saturday the chance to flip off his critics.
If you played the UNDER in each of Denver’s first eight games you would’ve won seven times. That tends to happen with a team that can’t score while also boasting one of the best defenses. I went back to the Broncos last week against Tennessee and they didn’t disappoint in a 17-10 loss. Teasing the total to 43 was a safety net that I didn’t need. The status of my ticket came down to the late Sunday window needing the Packers to stay within the 12-point teased line. They rallied with 14 fourth quarter points to tie the game and won it in OT for another successful week. With that behind me it’s on to Week 11 of the NFL schedule looking for more teaser pick winners.
NFL Week 11
NFL Week 11 Betting Lines
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Opening Line: Bears +3
Teaser Line: Bears +9
They’re still losing more than they win but the Bears are exciting with Justin Fields at the helm. They dropped three straight with the last two by a combined four points. Five of their seven losses were by one score and those were against teams much better off than the Falcons. Teasing the line to +9 takes care of a few things. It crosses key numbers of 6 and 7 and also has Chicago covered in the one score range.
The Falcons are in contention for a division title, it just happens to be the worst in the NFL. Fields should take advantage of a porous Atlanta defense doing enough to cover the mess on the other side of the football.
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens
Opening Line: Ravens -12.5
Teaser Line: Ravens -6.5
The Ravens are good and the Panthers are not, which is why the spread surfaced at Baltimore -12.5. We saw double-digit dogs win outright in each of the last two weeks and Carolina stunned Tampa Bay as a 13-point dog in Week 7, so anything is possible which is why I’m teasing the line to -6.5. But lightning rarely strikes twice.
It looks as though Baltimore tightened up defensively entering their bye on a three-game winning streak. And they’ve been nearly unbeatable in games immediately after their off week. Carolina has played well under interim coach Steve Wilks splitting four games, but they have struggled defensively and facing Lamar Jackson isn’t going to help their numbers. I like the Ravens in this matchup and I like them a lot more with a shorter line.
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Opening Total: 38.5
Teaser Total: 32.5
The teams played just a few weeks ago with New England pulling out a 22-17 victory cashing the UNDER on a total of 39.5. Both teams are rested and healthier coming off a bye and I do expect to see better quarterback play in this matchup helping to cash the OVER. Zach Wilson tossed three picks and Mac Jones had one spoiling numerous drives yet the teams still combined to exceed the total set for the rematch.
It was a narrow clear and both teams like to keep scoring to a minimum, but they both do enough offensively to keep opponents honest, which is why teasing the total to 32.5 to back the OVER is a good move.
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