It turned out to be a good week on all my picks getting a sweep in my total plays from Week 10. After a sluggish start to the NFL season things have picked up over the last seven weeks with nearly 72 percent of my total plays resulting in a winner in that span with two perfect weeks. I don’t mean to brag or anything, but it is a step up after going 3-6 on my total plays in the first three weeks. Last week was an even split with the over and under each hitting seven times on the 14-game slate. The UNDER still holds an edge for the season cashing 54.3 percent of the time.
I expected points to be scored in the Lions-Bears game not because the offenses are prolific rather because the teams are having a hard time stopping anyone. The teams hit the total of 48 early in the fourth quarter on a defensive score of all things, a play that was instrumental in Detroit’s 31-30 victory. The only turnover in the game was Jeff Okudah’s pick-six that tied the game at 24-24.
Backing the UNDER in the Jags-Chiefs game paid off with the teams coming up short of the 50.5 total in KC’s 27-17 win. And backing the UNDER in a Broncos game is now a trend. They got another strong game from the defense but failed to reach their NFL worst season scoring average in the 17-10 setback. Denver has now cashed the UNDER in eight of their nine games and average 14.6 points. The Broncos and Giants have played above the total just once helping to keep the season percentage in favor of the UNDER. Now is not the time to let up so I’ll attack the Week 11 NFL schedule looking to extend the heater on my total plays.
NFL Week 11
NFL Week 11 Betting Lines
Top Total Plays of Week 11
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens
Pick: OVER 42
While not as explosive as in years past the Ravens have a MVP quarterback playing at a high level with a vaunted ground game and the return of Mark Andrews expected this week. Baltimore would probably score points without those but they should do more damage because of them. Andrews is a key figure in the passing game allowing Lamar Jackson to balance the offense. He’s also a crucial red zone threat.
The Panthers have surrendered a lot of points this year and were shredded in their last three road games giving up an average of 34.3 in losses to Cincinnati, Atlanta and the Rams. They have played better since the coaching change but they are still at the mercy of Jackson and a powerful Baltimore offense.
Detroit Lions at New York Giants
Pick: UNDER 45.5
The Giants have thrived in close, low scoring games and this one has the makings of being another. With Saquon Barkley doing a bulk of the work on offense the Giants have the third-best ground game. They tend to keep things simple for Daniel Jones and the game plan has worked. New York doesn’t score a lot relying instead on an opportunistic defense. They also don’t hurt themselves. They average nearly 21 points but have played over the total of 45.5 just once.
The Lions led the league in scoring after four games but have settled into who most believe they really are. Over the last five outings they’re averaging just under 16 points and were held in check by some of the better defensive teams. The Giants are a big threat on the defensive end rattling Jared Goff into one of his patented poor outings leaving the teams below the total.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: OVER 41
I can see why the total is where it is for this game but it still seems too low. The Bengals are without star receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who had a big game in the opener against the Steelers. And Pittsburgh hasn’t scored more than 20 points in a regulation game. The Bengals entered their bye on a high downing Carolina 42-21 in Week 9 and have scored at least 30 points in three of their last four games after not hitting that number in their first five.
The Steelers rely on defense with the return of T.J. Watt making a decent group better. They do rank last against the pass, though, and Joe Burrow has plenty of weapons even without Chase. Cincy hit a groove the past few weeks and will look to avenge an opening day OT loss when Burrow threw four picks and was sacked seven times. I don’t anticipate that happening again.
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