Some of the best bets in the NFL each week are oftentimes wagers on teams that are considered the worst in the league. If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. We finally turned the corner last week with a very profitable 4-1 record. Let’s take a look at the Week 11 Ugly Dog picks.
Week 11 Ugly Dog Picks
Let me point out one fact that you are probably already aware of. When you bet these games, you are usually better off waiting until Sunday morning to make your wagers because you will probably get a better number than what I list from earlier in the week.
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Detroit Lions +10 at Cleveland Browns
The Lions got us a cover last week in a game that they had every chance to win. This week would seem to be a similar spot, as they face a Cleveland team that is heavily favored at home. The Browns are definitely going the wrong way right now and there are questions as to whether or not Baker Mayfield is a franchise quarterback. The Lions have those questions as well, as Jared Goff has not looked very good this season. This would seem to be a good spot for Cleveland to bounce back and that is definitely what the oddsmakers and the public think, as the Browns are a big home favorite. We’ll take the points with the Lions as an ugly dog.
Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Jaguars didn’t win last week, but they did enough to cover the spread against the Colts. This week they are at home and getting points from a San Francisco team that looked very good on Monday night. This is a tough spot for the 49ers coming off an emotional win over the Rams and now flying across the country to face a poor Jacksonville squad. The spot would seem to favor the Jaguars but they are still a bad team, even at home. The Jaguars have been in this column a lot this season as an ugly dog and they definitely qualify again this week.
Chicago Bears +6 vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Bears now have the looks of an ugly dog, as they come into this game at 3-7, on a four-game losing streak, and with a rookie quarterback who looks lost. It doesn’t help his cause that head coach Matt Nagy doesn’t appear to have any idea what to do. Chicago will now be facing a Baltimore team that should be angry after last week’s debacle against Miami. The Ravens also get the advantage of added rest since they played on a Thursday night. There is very little to like about the Bears and they may be the ugliest dog of the week, but that is the point of this column. We take the Bears plus the points as an ugly dog.
Houston Texans +10.5 at Tennessee Titans
The Texans are coming off their bye week and now they have to go in and face the team with the best record in the AFC. The Titans have been rolling even without Derek Henry and they are heavily favored at home in this one. The Texans did get Tyrod Taylor back at quarterback but they still have not looked good. Houston has not won a game since the first week of the season and oddsmakers don’t like their chances this week. We take the Texans plus the points as an ugly dog.
New York Giants +11 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This last team should come as no surprise, as the Giants are 3-6 and going nowhere. New York is coming off a win and off their bye so they are feeling good about themselves. That may not last long as they head into Tampa to play a Buccaneers team that is coming off two straight losses. This has all the looks of a blowout on Monday night with the Bucs taking their frustrations out on the Giants. This one is tough to do, but we take the Giants as an ugly dog.
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