Are you ready for another week of ugly dog picks in the NFL? It was another winning week last week, as we went 3-2 ATS. That improves the season record to 25-18-1 ATS. Some of the best bets in the NFL each week are oftentimes wagers on teams that are considered the worst in the league. If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works.
We have four games to look at for this week. Let’s look at the NFL Week 11 Ugly Dog picks.
Week 11 Ugly Dog Picks
Let me point out one fact that you are probably already aware of. When you bet these games, you are usually better off waiting until Sunday morning to make your wagers because you will probably get a better number than what I list from earlier in the week.
Carolina Panthers +12.5 at Baltimore Ravens
We got a win last week with Carolina, but the Panthers are still not a good team. This week they have to go on the road and face the Ravens in what looks like a really bad matchup for Carolina. The Panthers will be going back to Baker Mayfield at quarterback with PJ Walker hurt. Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Panthers, this game looks ugly. The Ravens are better on both sides of the ball and they are at home. We’ll take the Panthers as an ugly dog.
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Cleveland Browns +8 at Buffalo Bills
The Browns are just waiting to get Deshaun Watson back from suspension, but the problem for Cleveland is that they will likely be out of the playoff race before he comes back. The Browns also have more problems than just the starting quarterback. Jacoby Brissett hasn’t been great, but his play has been good enough that the Browns should have more than three wins. The Bills are coming off an unbelievable loss last week to Minnesota. You would think this would be a big bounce back game for the Bills. This one is definitely ugly, as we take the Browns plus the points.
Houston Texans +3 vs. Washington Commanders
The Texans have the worst record in the NFL and the Commanders are coming off a big upset win over the previously unbeaten Eagles on Monday night. The public is going to be taking the Commanders but oddsmakers only have this number at three and it actually opened at 2.5. The oddsmakers seem to think that the Texans are the right side in this game, but it is really unlikely the public is going to be betting on a Houston team that has just one win on the season. The Texans have been a regular in this column almost all season and that is the case again this week, as we take Houston as an ugly dog.
Arizona Cardinals +8 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals got a win last week against the Rams, but that was a matchup between two teams playing poorly. This week the Cardinals face a San Francisco team that looks like a serious contender in the NFC. The Cardinals went with Colt McCoy at quarterback last week with Kyler Murray hurt, and they may have actually been better off with McCoy.
Everyone gets all excited about Murray because he runs around a lot, but the reality is that he makes a lot of poor throws. The Cardinals are not likely to make a decision on this week’s starter until after Thursday’s practice. Regardless of who starts, the Cardinals look to be in real trouble in this game in Mexico on Monday. We’ll take Arizona as an ugly dog.
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