After getting pushed around against the line the last two weeks, the favored teams made up for it in Week 12, going 10-3 straight up and covering the closing line in eight of the 13 games. The Cleveland at Cincinnati matchup closed as a pick ‘em. Over the previous two weekends, the dogs were barking loud by going 14-8 with five pushes. Favorites came through for their backers against some steep closing lines this week. Four teams giving double-digit points all covered with the Chargers blowing out the hapless Cardinals 45-10 as 14-point chalk. Baltimore ( -13 ), New England ( -13 ) and New Orleans ( -12.5 ) also came through against a steep line.
We had a majority of games through the Sunday night encounter play below the closing total for the first time in three weeks. The under was 8-6 in Week 12, also cashing on the biggest totals of the week. The Saints and Falcons fell below the total of 61.5 in a 31-17 win for the home team. Indianapolis won its fifth game in a row, beating Miami 27-24. However, the teams failed to reach the 52.5-point total.
NFL Week 12 Betting Summary
| WAGER | Favorite/Underdog |
| Straight Up | 10 – 3 |
| ATS | 8 – 5 |
| WAGER | Total (O/U) |
| Over/Under | 6 – 8 |
Biggest Week 12 Upsets
In terms of the closing spread there were no major upsets this week. The three favorites that lost were all giving a field goal on the closing line. The Jacksonville Jaguars lost for the seventh straight time and several players lost their cool as well during a melee in the playoff rematch with the Bills on Sunday.
It’s good to see the Jags show some fight, unfortunately the aggression was aimed in a direction that didn’t involve their play on the field. One year after playing for the AFC championship, the Jags are trying to stay out of the basement. They are tied with the Jets and one game up on the Raiders for the worst record in the conference. The Jags have also been a money pit to their backers with a 0-5-2 ATS record during their losing streak.
The Steelers were another road favorite to get upset, having their six-game winning streak snapped in a 24-17 loss to the Broncos. Ball security has been an issue the last two games with four turnovers undoing a solid offensive effort in the Mile High city. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 462 yards and the Steelers amassed 527 total yards, but this time the turnovers proved costly.
Three giveaways against the Jags didn’t hurt in the final outcome, but two turnovers deep in Denver territory and four total eventually did in Big Ben and Co. The Steelers hadn’t been that generous with the football since coughing it up six times in the season-opening tie with Cleveland. Pitt remains atop the AFC North and hopefully they got the dropsies out of their system for the stretch run.
Three weeks ago the Carolina Panthers were being mentioned in the same sentence as the Saints and Rams in the NFC. Now, after three straight losses, they aren’t even a playoff team. The margin between victory and defeat is slim, just ask the Steelers. And the Panthers are experiencing just how thin it is from the wrong side. A critical battle between playoff hopefuls went in favor of Seattle on Sunday, dropping the Panthers to 6-5. They lost outright as a field goal favorite and have dropped the last two games by a total of four points.
Biggest Week 11 Spreads
As mentioned above, four teams played as a favorite of at least 12.5-points on the closing line and all four covered the spread. The Bolts rebounded behind a record-setting performance from Philip Rivers to continue the Cardinals misery. Rivers tied a NFL record with 25 straight completions and set a game record for highest completion percentage by connecting on 28 of 29. Things didn’t look good at the outset with Arizona jumping out to a 10-0 lead. But the Bolts locked down defensively and Rivers did the rest to easily cover the 14-point spread in a 45-10 decision.
The Saints are just as hot at the betting window as they are on the field. They won their 10th in a row with a Thanksgiving night rout of the Falcons, covering the 12.5-point line in their 31-17 win. It also gave the Saints their ninth straight cover win. At 9-2 ATS this season, the Saints are the most profitable team in the league. Laying 13-points on the closing line, the Ravens handled Oakland at home and the Patriots came off their bye and regained playoff form in a 27-13 win over the Jets.
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