If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. We went 3-1 with the picks in Week 11 and that takes the season record to 27-22-1. We have five plays to look at for this week. Let’s take a look at the Week 12 Ugly Dog picks.
Week 12 Ugly Dog Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
The only loss we had last week was on the Jaguars, but Jacksonville does appear to still be playing hard. They had covered the previous two weeks, but the game got away from them last week against Pittsburgh. The wiseguys like the Jaguars this week, as they have not let this line get to 7. The public is going to back the Browns in this one simply because they are going against the Jaguars. I still don’t think Cleveland is that good, but they don’t have to be that good to win this one. The question is whether or not they cover the spread. The Jaguars are pretty much a regular in this column and we have to take them again this week as an ugly dog.
Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 at Buffalo Bills
The Chargers finally found a way to win a close game last week, as they beat the Jets. I don’t know how much credit you get for beating the Jets, but oddsmakers are giving Los Angeles a lot of respect, as the Chargers are just 5.5-point underdogs at Buffalo. This game looks a lot like the previous one, as the wiseguys seem to be on the Chargers. The public is going to be laying the short number and taking the Bills. We go against the public and take the Chargers as an ugly dog.
New York Jets +7 vs. Miami Dolphins
We got a win last week with the Jets as an ugly dog and that has not happened that often this season. The Jets have been a regular in this column and we have finally picked up a couple of wins with New York plus the points after getting pounded week after week for a couple of months. The Jets are still winless and no team in the NFL wants to finish winless, so despite what some people are saying, the Jets are not going to be tanking in this game. The Jets might very well tank after they get a win, but time is running short and the Jets want to get that first win. This might be a decent spot, as the Dolphins no longer look like a team on the rise. The Jets are still a go-against team so the public is going to be backing Miami. We’ll take the Jets as an ugly dog.
Chicago Bears +8.5 at Green Bay Packers
I think you have to put the Bears in the ugly dog category based on how they have played recently. They have lost four straight games and now have the worst offense in the NFC. Perhaps a change in quarterback from Foles back to Trubisky will spark Chicago, but we don’t know what Matt Nagy is going to do. What we do know is that whoever is calling plays for Chicago this season has done a rotten job. The Bears are not without talent, but they have had very poor play calling all season. The Packers are coming off a loss and they are at home and the public is going to be all over Green Bay. We’ll back the Bears as an ugly dog.
Philadelphia Eagles +5.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Eagles won’t be leading the NFC East entering this game because the winner of Dallas and Washington will be in first place and it could be the Giants are right with them as well. The Eagles will need to win this game to regain first place in the division. The Eagles have been a mess this season, especially on offense, as quarterback Carson Wentz looks lost. He still has the physical talent, but his brain is mush. He continually makes mistakes and costs his team games. He gets a break this week as he faces a bad Seattle defense. Whether it will matter is another story, as the Seahawks should be able to put a lot of points on the board. We’ll take the Eagles as an ugly dog.
Check out the latest NFL Week 12 Odds at BookMaker Sportsbook!
