Some of the best bets in the NFL each week are oftentimes wagers on teams that are considered the worst in the league. If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. We are coming off a 3-2 week and that makes us 7-3 the last two weeks. Let’s take a look at the Week 12 Ugly Dog picks.
Week 12 Ugly Dog Picks
Let me point out one fact that you are probably already aware of. When you bet these games, you are usually better off waiting until Sunday morning to make your wagers because you will probably get a better number than what I list from earlier in the week.
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Detroit Lions +3.5 vs. Chicago Bears
The Lions would seemingly have their best chance to win a game so far this season on Thanksgiving, as they host the Bears. Detroit has been good to us in this column recently, as they covered against Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Quarterback Jared Goff missed last week’s game but he seems to be moving in the right direction to play this week. Goff has not been that great this season but he is definitely a better option than Tim Boyle. The Bears have issues of their own at quarterback, as Justin Fields left last week’s game due to injury and was replaced by Andy Dalton. The Bears would actually be better off if Dalton plays because Fields does not seem ready to be an NFL starting quarterback. It appears Dalton will get the start on Thursday. The Lions are at home, it is Thanksgiving and they are getting points against a Chicago team that seems to be waiting for head coach Matt Nagy to be fired.
We’ll take the Lions as an ugly dog.
New York Giants +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
We said last week in this column that the Giants looked like a really bad play against Tampa Bay and that proved to be correct, as New York was routed on Monday night. We don’t pick and choose in this column, as we simply take the ugly dogs. New York has major problems in terms of coaching starting with head coach Joe Judge and going right on down the line. Judge ripped into his coaches after the loss to Tampa Bay and that probably won’t do any good. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett seems to be getting the bulk of the blame, but it could be that quarterback Daniel Jones just isn’t any good. The Giants face a Philadelphia team that is trending in the right direction, as the Eagles have won two straight games. We’ll take the Giants plus the points as an ugly dog.
Jacksonville Jaguars +1 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Jaguars looked pathetic again last week as they were blown off the field by San Francisco. The Jaguars stay home and face an Atlanta team that has been up and down this season. We seem to have Jacksonville in this column every week and they usually let us down. The Falcons are not a good team, but Jacksonville is simply a bad team with a completely overrated head coach in Urban Meyer and a quarterback in Trevor Lawrence who has not looked anything like a No. 1 draft pick. We are stuck taking the Jaguars again as an ugly dog.
Miami Dolphins +2 vs. Carolina Panthers
The Dolphins have actually won three in a row, but before you get too excited you have to remember that two of those three wins came against Houston and the Jets. This week’s opponent doesn’t look that much better. Carolina was getting a lot of love with the return of Cam Newton, but the Panthers couldn’t handle Washington last week and it is questionable whether they are good enough to be laying points in Miami. The Dolphins are right on the cusp of whether or not they are an ugly dog, but for now we’ll still say they are and take Miami plus the points this week.
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