We’ve seen the typical ½- to 1-point swings on the early NFL lines at BookMaker.eu and a few Week 13 encounters have remained stagnant. But a pair of games stood out among all the others in the midweek betting roundup. Those games have seen enormous shifts with each jumping the fence and the chaos is far from being over. We haven’t seen a spread move as much as it did for the AFC East battle between the Bills and Dolphins. Buffalo opened as a 6-point favorite at BookMaker.eu in what was clearly a clerical error. The line was corrected after several minutes and reposted at Miami -6. Some buyback currently has the line at Miami -4.5.
Several sportsbooks have the line for the Baltimore at Atlanta game as a pick ‘em, which seems about right when factoring in the homefield advantage for the Falcons. And that’s probably why the line jumped the fence at BookMaker.eu. The Ravens opened at -2 and currently sit at +1 with plenty of bettors backing the home team. And with concerns over the availability of Mitchell Trubisky, we have yet to see an opening line for the Bears-Giants clash on Sunday.
Let’s take a more in depth look at a few Week 13 games that have seen some shifting in the line since the numbers hit the board.
Week 13 Major Line Moves
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Opening Line: Dolphins -6
Current Line: Dolphins -4.5
The Bills have not been favored in any game this season, so it was a surprise to see them at -6 when the line hit the board at BookMaker.eu. That was a huge error and the line was moved the other way within 10 minutes of initially hitting the board. Still, anyone paying close attention should have hit that number hard. Believe it or not, the Bills aren’t out of the playoff picture just yet, and there hopes have been renewed by back-to-back victories over the Jets and Jaguars.
And the Bills have shown signs of having an offense. They were averaging around 11 points per game through the first nine but erupted for 41 against the Jets with Matt Barkley calling the plays. Josh Allen returned last week and ran for nearly 100 yards to beat the Jaguars 24-21. The Dolphins are kicking themselves for letting one get away last week and they are trending in the wrong direction. They’ve lost two straight and four of five to fall below .500 for the first time. And that’s why Buffalo is getting two-thirds of the early action.
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
Opening Line: Ravens -2
Current Line: Falcons -1
Moving from a 2-point favorite to a 1-point dog isn’t all that significant since games rarely end with a 1- or 2-point margin. But a three-point swing and jumping the fence is an indication that early action on this inter-conference matchup is volatile. And the quarterback situation in Baltimore is part of the reason. Inserted in place of Joe Flacco, Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to a pair of wins to get them back in the playoff hunt. It looks like the jury is still out on the rookie, though, with the Falcons backed by 85 percent of the public, pushing the spread in their favor.
There’s no doubt that Jackson is an electrifying talent after running for 190 yards and a score in the last two games. But those were against the Bengals and Raiders, two of the worst defensive clubs in football. Can he do it again against a Falcons team that has several regular defenders already on IR? The masses are saying no.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Opening Line: Colts -3
Current Line: Colts -4
Several other games have had a line shift of 1-point, but this one is significant since it’s the only one that’s moved off the key number 3. The line got as high as Indy -4.5, but some buyback moved it down off the half number. The season has been a wreck for the Jags, who were billed as a Super Bowl contender in the offseason. The team that takes the field on Sunday will have a different look following the firing of O-coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, the benching of Blake Bortles and the suspension of Leonard Fournette.
All that and the Colts being one of the hottest teams in the NFL have Indy backers salivating over beating the spread in this one. Andrew Luck is already the comeback player of the year and he doesn’t even have to throw another touchdown pass. He has 32 with at least three in eight straight games, and the Colts already have a win over the Jags a few weeks ago as part of their win streak and Jacksonville’s 7-game losing skid.
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