There was no drama last week when it came to my NFL parlay picks. Unlike Week 11 when I was one win short of hitting a four-team winner, things didn’t go according to plan. If you took my advice, I’m sorry for your loss. The good thing, if there is a good thing about losing a bet, is that there were no ‘what ifs.’ Three of my picks were losers, which is the worst week I’ve had. Sometimes things just don’t go your way and last week was that time. Nothing we can do about it now except move ahead to Week 13 and hope for better results. Oh, and have I ever said that winning a multi-team parlay is probably the hardest thing to do when wagering on football.
After last week’s embarrassment I need to figure things out. I’ll stick with the same approach for now highlighting two favorites and two underdogs as potential winners on your parlay card maintaining at least one dog on the moneyline since those are the teams that can inflate the payout. My two dogs failed me last week with the Giants dropping their Thanksgiving tilt with the Cowboys. At +400 the G-Men looked like a solid play and they covered the closing line. I also took Tennessee at +2.5 in their playoff rematch with the Bengals. Unfortunately the outcome was the same with Cincy covering in their 20-16 triumph.
My only win came with San Francisco at -9 shutting out the Saints 13-0. New Orleans isn’t good enough to overcome all the mistakes they made and a good Niners squad. There was no drama with my picks but there was plenty in the Baltimore-Jacksonville game. A touchdown and 2-point conversion with 14 seconds left lifted the underdog Jags to a 28-27 win handing me another setback. Sportsbooks aren’t in business to hand out money so I’ll try and flip the script with my Week 13 parlay picks.
NFL Week 13
NFL Week 13 Betting Lines
Parlay Card Favorites
Favored teams on the betting line went 11-5 SU last week after going 11-3 SU in Week 11. There are enough winners out there to pick from but sometimes the moneyline bet doesn’t always have the best value. Betting against the spread gives a better payout but is more difficult. Those same teams laying points went just 8-8 ATS in Week 11. There are some early favorites on the Week 13 board worth taking a look at and as The Dating Game host Jim Lange used to say, “and heeere they are.”
I don’t think the Vikings get the respect they deserve. They are 9-2 after all and you don’t win nine games by luck. They’ve had good fortune in a number of their games and they bounced back from a whoopin by Dallas to take apart a good New England defense on Thanksgiving. Mike White and the Jets did a number on a banged up Bears squad and this week will be more of a test. I feel confident backing Minnesota at -3.
Speaking of the Bears, things got worse for them during the week with starting safety Eddie Jackson and leading receiver Darnell Mooney going on IR. And we don’t know the status of Justin Fields. Not wanting to miss an opportunity to pad his stats, Aaron Rodgers said he’ll play despite leaving last game with an injury. Rodgers owns the Bears and that’s not going to change so I’ll back the Pack at -4.5.
Parlay Card Underdog
The dogs are out there is just about picking the right ones. There have been some big upsets with a number of double-digit dogs winning outright this season, but that’s more of an outlier. If you pay attention to the line you’ll notice a majority of outright winners are in the 3-point and under range. In other words those games could be considered a tossup. Which of the teams catching points are in line for a Week 13 win?
The Niners keep winning, but boy did they get a lot of help from the Saints last week. The Dolphins are a different group with AFC East title expectations and beyond. The Fins are one club that can match SF’s skill players and some would argue they’re better. Either way, they’ll pressure the Niners’ D like no team has and I see them winning this contest as a +166 moneyline dog.
Here I am backing the underdog Titans again. They didn’t help me last week, but catching 5.5 points against an Eagles team they match up well against is a bonus. The Eagles have struggled the last few weeks losing to Washington then rallying to knock off Indy and taking out Green Bay in OT. The luck runs out this week with the Titans winning outright at +206 on the moneyline.
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