The odds finally caught up with the Saints, who saw their 10-game SU and nine-game ATS winning streaks stopped by losing outright as a touchdown-favorite in Dallas last week. We went to the well once too often and it cost us on our four-team teaser card, with that being the only defeat we suffered. However, in order to cash the winning ticket we need all four teams to cover the teaser line, so it didn’t matter what happened in the other games. By the way, we won the other three with the Texans and Cardinals coming through on the teased line while the Chiefs and Raiders played over the teased total.
Seven out of eight teaser picks won in the last two weeks is nice, but we have only one winning ticket to show for it. That’s the unpredictable nature of the NFL even when moving the lines as much as six points in your favor. It would seem like a much easier chore, but it isn’t.
We move ahead to Week 14 still confident in our ability to properly tease the correct lines, and we’ll try and beat the house again with our top three teaser picks of the week.
Week 14 Top Teaser Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Current Line: Jaguars +4
Teaser Line: Jaguars +10
Hell, we may not even see 10 points total scored in this game so why not tease the line in favor of the Jags and see what happens. Both teams are much stronger on the defensive side of the football, which leads me to believe this will be a low-scoring affair. The Jags ended their slide last week by blanking the Colts and red-hot Andrew Luck, so they clearly haven’t packed it in. The Colts were the fourth-highest scoring team entering last week’s tilt and the Jags held them to 265 yards while recording three sacks and a pair of takeaways. It was the kind of performance we got used to seeing last season from the Jags. The earlier meeting produced a total of 15 points and the teams combined for 25 points in Nashville last year. Taking the points looks like a steal, and besides we need something about this game to hold our attention.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current Total: 55.5
Teaser Total: 49.5
Expect to see a different Saints team than the one that showed up in Dallas last week. With the long winning streak now behind them, Drew Brees and Co. can get back to work and they will come out firing against a Bucs team that has some life after winning two in a row. And Tampa has had success behind a defense that’s allowed just 26 points combined in the last two outings. But the season-long body of work speaks for itself, and the Bucs aren’t facing the Niners this week. Brees typically doesn’t have two bad outings in a row, and neither do the Saints. And the Bucs defense is just what they need after NO stubbed its toe last week. The Saints are on the verge of locking up their second straight NFC South title and they are chasing down LA for the top spot in the conference, so they have plenty at stake. We’ll bring the total down six points to 49.5 and watch these clubs light it up like they usually do.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
Current Line: Rams -3
Teaser Line: Rams +3
This is probably the game of the week and the Bears have plenty to prove as they try to make a statement in the NFC. Deservedly so the game was flexed into the prime time Sunday spot so everyone can see two of the best teams go at it. The Rams proved again last week why they are the Super Bowl favorite, overcoming an off day from Jared Goff to beat the Lions and clinch the West title. Goff had one of his worst outings of the season, but Todd Gurley picked up the slack adding to his league-leading touchdown and rushing yardage totals. Mitchell Trubisky is expected to return for the Bears, but the Rams played a strong defensive game last week, shutting down Matthew Stafford and the Lions with Aaron Donald getting two more sacks. I like the Rams anyway and getting points is a bonus.
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