The one game I felt most confident about being a winner was the only loss on my three-team NFL teaser picks last week. I guess that just proves that winning a bet isn’t easy even when you manipulate the line or spread in your favor. Following a major heater that saw me hit six three-team winners in the span of seven weeks, things have cooled off. For the second straight week I came close hitting two of three games, but as we know by now every game has to win in order to cash the ticket. In a way coming close only makes it more difficult to accept the loss.
The game I’m talking about was the clash between Miami and San Francisco. The Fins were hot with five straight wins coming in while scoring 30 points in each of the previous four. Tua Tagovailoa is having a monster season with some of the top playmakers in the game surrounding him. I wasn’t backing a win rather a close game within the 10-point teased line. Even after a Niners field goal with two minutes left the difference was nine. Tua was stripped on the ensuing possession with the Niners returning the fumble for a score. Now that’s a bad beat.
I did succeed on my other picks, though it meant nothing. I teased the 40.5 total to 46.5 knowing the Giants and Washington would fall below the number. And as it turned out I didn’t need the teased total with the game ending in a 20-20 tie. That was a relief since I was pretty much guaranteed a win once the game went into OT. It looks like I bought the Raiders at a good time. When I made the pick Vegas was a 1-point dog. However, by kickoff the line jumped the fence with the Raiders laying 2.5-points. In the end it didn’t matter with the Raiders prevailing 27-20.
Close isn’t good enough and I’m running out of time to find the mojo that brought me a bunch of wins just a few weeks ago. So it’s off to Week 14 to see what lines we can tease to bring a winning ticket home.
NFL Week 14 Betting Lines
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Opening Line: Jets +9.5
Teaser Line: Jets +15.5
The spread for this AFC matchup is a sign that the Jets aren’t getting a lot of respect. They are 7-5 and in a good spot to make the playoffs. They lost three times in their past nine games with none of the defeats by more than seven points. They play it close with an elite defense and the offense got a boost when Mike White took over at QB. He passed for 684 yards in the last two games, though two picks proved fatal in last week’s loss to Minnesota.
Just a few weeks ago the Jets stunned Buffalo 20-17 as an 11-point underdog. The D held Josh Allen to 205 passing yards and intercepted him twice while recording five sacks. The Bills are looking to avenge that setback while also maintaining their first place standing in the division. The Jets will use the lack of respect as motivation while staying in contention for their first playoff berth since the 2010 season.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Opening Line: Bengals -6.5
Teaser Line: Bengals -0.5
Teasing the line makes this game a tossup and I’ll back the home team after a confidence-boosting win over KC last week. The Bengals appear to be getting stronger every week having won four straight and six of seven. The return of Ja’Marr Chase rejuvenated the offense with him and Joe Burrow hooking up nine times last week.
The Browns are still alive and need wins badly. It seems like an odd time to switch QBs, but this is why they acquired Deshaun Watson. Playing for the first time in like 700 days, Watson was 12 of 22 for 131 yards and a pick against the lowly Texans. The competition ramps up significantly and I don’t know if Watson is ready yet.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Opening Line: Broncos +9.5
Teaser Line: Broncos +15.5
In case you haven’t noticed I like to back teams that are catching at least two touchdowns on the teased line. Denver and the Jets both sat at +9.5 with the teased line going to +15.5. That’s just a lot of points in the NFL. If not for their menacing defense it’s hard to imagine where the Broncos would be since their offense is putrid.
Seven of Denver’s nine losses were by a single score and none were by more than the teased line. I’m not betting on a Broncos win since they haven’t done that in this series in 13 games, but a close game is certainly something they can do.
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