Betting the over/under seems simple enough. Pick one side and throw down then hope the teams cooperate. In theory there’s a 50/50 chance of winning, right? That maybe so, but there are things you can do to improve your chances. I had a better week on my NFL total picks going 2-1 in Week 13 following two straight losing weekends. Checking out injury reports, current trends, matchup history and how certain key players are performing can all help make a more informed wager. It doesn’t always work out but in the end I can guarantee you have a better chance of winning than flipping a coin.
By going 2-1 I improved my overall winning percentage to 56.4 for the season. It could and should be better, and I’ll do my best to raise that number in Week 14. Eight of 15 games last week cashed the UNDER with that side winning 53.5 percent of the time for the season. My two under picks split and I won taking the OVER in the Green Bay-Chicago matchup. The Pack did me a solid scoring 18 fourth quarter points, including the final touchdown on a 46-yard Christian Watson run with less than two minutes left for the 28-19 win.
While a majority of games played below the total you still have to locate the right ones. I figured Deshaun Watson would be rusty in his first game in two years and the Texans just have a hard time scoring. Voila, the game ended in favor of Cleveland 27-14, below the total of 47, which I thought was high at the time. I also backed the Jets defense in their game with Minnesota and that didn’t turn out well. They allowed 20 first half points and though they stiffened in the second half, the loss was sealed midway through the fourth quarter. I’m running out of time to increase my winning percentage needing a big Week 14 on my NFL total plays.
NFL Week 14 Betting Lines
Top Total Plays of Week 14
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: OVER 37
In typical AFC North fashion these teams have played some hard-fought, low scoring games over the years. And with Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson on the shelf with an injury the betting public has wagered the total to a ridiculously low 37. It’s the second time in the past 10 matchups that the total has reached the 30s. In 2019 Baltimore won 28-10 with the total at 35. It’s almost impossible not to score and a few breaks here and there should carry this to the OVER.
I can see why the number tumbled. Nothing against Tyler Huntley but he’s not Lamar and the Ravens offense will look different. Huntley was solid in place of Jackson last week and he’s been good in his brief appearances. He needs to be better throwing the football since he has no TD passes in his last three appearances. The teams don’t need to score a lot they just need to score enough, and with strong kickers field goals will be the difference.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Pick: UNDER 44.5
A strong start has faded with the Giants going 0-2-1 SU in their last three games with cracks in the defense. The Giants haven’t scored a lot this season needing a strong effort from the stop group. They are currently in a playoff spot but the G-Men have had a hard time against fellow NFC East foes. One way to restore the confidence is by beating the top team in the conference.
The Giants did a nice job containing Jalen Hurts last season holding him to fewer than 200 passing yards in each of the two games. And both contests finished below the total set for this one. Philly’s last four road games all cashed the UNDER and I don’t see the Giants doing enough to bring this one above the total.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Pick: UNDER 44
If Denver’s defense wasn’t this good it’s scary to think where the club would be. As it is they are 3-9 and can only play spoiler from here on out. The Broncos have been in every game, at least according to the score. Six of their eight losses were by seven points or less with the other two being a 9- and 13-point game. To be that close in so many games when the offense averages a league-low 13.8 points means there’s not much scoring.
At this point the Broncos offense is a joke. They’ve scored more than 16 points in a game twice topping out at 23. They’ve scored 10 points or less in four of their last six games and have cashed the UNDER in eight straight games. The Chiefs will get tired trying to go over the total on their own so I’m backing the UNDER.
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