A different approach on my Week 14 NFL parlay picks unfortunately yielded the same results. I’ve consistently won a few games every week but have yet to hit a four-team winner this season, and it sure would be nice to experience that before the campaign comes to a close. I did like the new approach of picking four random games rather than limiting the picks to a pair of dogs and a pair of favorites. And with bye weeks now officially done we have all 16 games from which to pick our winners.
I said last week that I might regret my decision to back Tennessee yet I did it anyway. Well, I regret the decision. Looking at their history of success against the Jags I caved and took the Titans at -4. Well, the Titans clearly have issues on defense allowing Trevor Lawrence to throw for 368 yards and three touchdowns. The Titans were drubbed at home 36-22. So, I learned my lesson and won’t come close to Tennessee this week. I also expected more from the Bucs and less from Brock Purdy and the Niners. Tom Brady’s homecoming to the Bay Area was foiled 35-7. SF scored on its first possession and the game was never in doubt.
I need to build off the positives and there were a few last week. Backing the Jets at +9.5 proved to be fruitful. New York played a strong game defensively and needing two scores late they opted for a field goal with less than two minutes to play bringing them within the spread at 20-12. My moneyline pick of the week was the Chargers at +154. They never trailed in beating Miami 23-17. A defense ranked near the bottom all season, the Bolts held Tua Tagovailoa to 145 passing yards and the Fins to 219 total yards in the outright success keeping them right in the middle of the AFC playoff race.
Though the parlay card didn’t cash I feel good about the format and the chances of hitting a winner. I’ll stick with the random four-team draw on the Week 15 edition of NFL parlay picks.
NFL Week 15 Betting Lines
New York Giants +178 ML
Dallas Cowboys -4
Pittsburgh Steelers +3
Rams/Packers O39.5
The Giants are winless in their last four games putting a dent in their playoff hopes. They currently hold the No. 7 slot tied with Washington, though the Commanders hold the tie breaker. The teams met just a few weeks ago battling to a 20-20 tie. While Washington was off last week the Giants were getting pummeled by NFC leader Philadelphia, which probably helped them get fired up for this contest. Though the defense was a big letdown the offense showed signs of moving the football, which has been a struggle. The Giants have been good running the ball and Saquon Barkley said he’s “good” after playing limited snaps last week giving the G-Man their best offensive weapon.
You might think twice about backing the Cowboys after a near embarrassment last week. They needed a late score to beat Houston in a game they were favored by 17 points. The good thing is that there’s no carryover in the NFL and Dallas will easily slip back to the form that helped them win 10 games. Dak Prescott and the offense will move the ball against a vulnerable Jags defense and I’m not sure Trevor Lawrence has faced a defense as mobile and menacing as the Cowboys. I see no issue backing the Boys at -4.
Despite the teams having identical 5-8 records the perception is much different. The Steelers have never had a losing season under Mike Tomlin, but they are on their way. They got another standout game from the defense last week but offensive ineptness failed them again. And the Steelers could be minus Kenny Pickett, who started the week in concussion protocol. Mitch Trubisky had decent numbers, but three picks denied the Steelers a chance to beat Baltimore. The defense will do enough to keep them in the game and within the spread.
My winning ticket will come down to the Monday night clash between the Rams and Packers on the Frozen Tundra. It’s going to be cold in Green Bay which is why the total dropped a few points. Aaron Rodgers digs this kind of weather and Baker Mayfield has a lot to prove in his new home. Mayfield drove the Rams to the game-winning touchdown in the final minutes last week and that chip on his shoulder is about the size of a boulder. He’s actually a good fit with his mobility negating a weak offensive line.
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