Based on overall results I can say betting a NFL teaser card is easier than a parlay and wagering on the total. I say that because once again I had a three-team winner giving me seven payouts over the last 10 weeks. The idea of buying points to manipulate a spread or total in your favor should make things easier, so it’s not a complete surprise I’ve enjoyed so much success on my teasers over the last few months. It comes at a cost, though. The payout is much smaller on a teaser card for obvious reasons. However, it still feels good to beat the house.
There are rules to follow when betting a teaser and for the most part I’ve done that. Teasing a spread across key numbers is like splitting aces and eights at the blackjack table. Another rule I follow, though I’ve been more selective, is teasing the spread to double-figures. Simply, 10 or more points in a NFL game are a lot and the numbers tell a story. Teams favored by 10+ points usually win outright going 18-3 SU, but on the line things are much different. Teams catching the points are 13-8 ATS. I teased two lines to double figures last week and they both paid off.
The Jets and Broncos both covered without the teased line, but things could’ve easily been different. A late New York field goal moved the final score to Buffalo 20-12. I had a winner even before the kick so I didn’t sweat the outcome. There was a similar situation in Denver with the Broncos making a surge back from a 27-0 deficit. They lost the game 34-28 covering the teased spread of 15.5. And as it turns out there was no need to tease the line in the Bengals/Browns game. Cincy was laying 6.5 points with the new line making the game a tossup. The Bengals prevailed 23-10 and were never really threatened. Let’s see what odds we can tease in Week 15 to cash another winning ticket.
NFL Week 15 Betting Lines
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Opening Line: Dolphins +7.5
Teaser Line: Dolphins +13.5
Here I go again moving a line over the 10-point threshold. I think the Bills have been overvalued in a lot of their games but the opening line makes sense. Miami is coming off consecutive losses on the West Coast and finishing a grueling road trip. They’ve also struggled in Western New York winning just once in their last 10 visits.
But the spread is close enough to show how meaningful the game is to both clubs. The Fins still have a shot at the AFC East title and they need to get their swagger back. They beat the Bills 21-19 win Week 3 despite giving up nearly 500 yards of offense, so they can handle the pressure Josh Allen and Co. will bring.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Opening Total: 40
Teaser Total: 46
After watching these teams slug it out to a 20-20 tie just a few weeks ago, it’s hard to see them playing over the teased total of 46. And I expect the Giants to play with more fire after getting embarrassed by the Eagles last week. They didn’t show up defensively and once behind by 17 points at the break the game was pretty much over. The Giants can’t throw the ball but they run it decently with Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones.
Though Taylor Heinicke has been efficient since getting the starting gig, the team formerly known as the Redskins isn’t going to burn out bulbs on the scoreboard. Both teams rushed for more than 130 yards with the Giants taking 30 turns and Washington 36. I expect more of the same keeping the clock churning and the points on the field.
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
Opening Line: Eagles -9
Teaser Line: Eagles -3
There are reasons why the Eagles are the best team in the NFL and why the Bears have just three wins. Philly leads the league in scoring and boasts the No. 1 ranked total defense. The Bears have struggled stopping opponents which is why the Eagles were -9 on the opening line. Justin Fields has transformed Chicago’s offense and with a few breaks they could sneak up on the Eagles. And this is a prime letdown spot for Philly after annihilating division rival New York last week to clinch a playoff spot.
So, just in case they aren’t up to the task the teased line of Eagles -3 looks much better. I don’t see Philly losing this game but the Bears can make things interesting with Fields working his magic.
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